| 原位地应力测量与实时监测在地震预报研究中的作用和意义 |
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| 引用本文： | 谭成轩,张鹏,路士龙,朱建竹,丰成君,秦向辉,孟静.原位地应力测量与实时监测在地震预报研究中的作用和意义[J].地质力学学报,2019,25(5):866-876. |
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| 作者姓名： | 谭成轩 张鹏 路士龙 朱建竹 丰成君 秦向辉 孟静 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地质科学院地质力学研究所,北京100081;自然资源部新构造与地壳稳定性科技创新团队,北京100081;北京市昌平区地震局,北京,102200 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国地质调查局项目（DD20160267）；国土资源部公益性行业科研专项（201211096）；深部探测技术与实验研究专项-原位地应力测量与监测技术（SinoProbe-06） |
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| 摘 要： | 当2013年4月20日四川芦山Ms 7.0级大地震发生时，中国科学家已不再像2008年汶川Ms 8.0大地震发生时那样茫然和不知所措。其根本原因在于，2008年汶川大地震发生后，龙门山地区开展了大量的科学研究工作，已超前初步认知龙门山断裂带西南端具有潜在地震危险性，特别是原位地应力测量和实时监测已发现绝对地应力大小高值异常和相对地应力大小临震异常变化。论文简要介绍了地震预报国际主流观点与认识，梳理了地应力在地震预报研究中的作用和认识，探讨了2004 Parkfield earthquake钻孔应变监测结果给予的启示，详细介绍了原位地应力测量与实时监测在地震预报研究中应用的实践与探索。实践证明:地震预报是值得探索和研究的，原位地应力测量与实时监测是地震预报的有效方法之一。
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| 关 键 词： | 原位地应力测量与实时监测 地震预报 北京平谷地应力实时监测台站 四川宝兴地应力实时监测台站 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/8/5 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019/9/6 0:00:00 |
SIGNIFICANCE AND ROLE OF IN-SITU CRUSTAL STRESS MEASURING AND REAL-TIME MONITORING IN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION RESEARCH |
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| TAN Chengxuan,ZHANG Peng,LU Shilong,ZHU Jianzhu,FENG Chengjun,QIN Xianghui and MENG Jing.SIGNIFICANCE AND ROLE OF IN-SITU CRUSTAL STRESS MEASURING AND REAL-TIME MONITORING IN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION RESEARCH[J].Journal of Geomechanics,2019,25(5):866-876. |
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| Authors: | TAN Chengxuan ZHANG Peng LU Shilong ZHU Jianzhu FENG Chengjun QIN Xianghui and MENG Jing |
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| Institution: | 1.Institute of Geomechanics, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China2.Scientific and Technical Innovation Team of Neotectonics and Crustal Stability, Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing 100081, China3.Beijing Changping District Seismological Bureau, Beijing 102200, China |
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| Abstract: | When the Lushan Ms 7.0 earthquake occurred on April 20, 2013, Chinese scientists were not surprised and at a loss what to do as the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake happened in 2008. The main reason is that a lot of scientific research works have been carried out along the Longmenshan fracture zone after the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake, and the potential seismic risks have been primarily pre-found at the southwestern segment of the Longmenshan fracture zone, especially, absolute big crustal stress magnitude abnormality from in-situ crustal stress measuring and relative crustal stress short-term precursory abnormal variation from in-situ crustal stress monitoring have been discovered. This paper first briefly introduces the international main views and knowledge on earthquake prediction. Then the inspiration from the bore-hole strain monitoring result of 2004 Parkfield earthquake is discussed. The role and knowledge of crustal stress on earthquake prediction are also summarized. At last, the practice and exploration of in-situ crustal stress measuring and real-time monitoring in earthquake prediction are presented in detail. From the practice and facts, we think that earthquake prediction should be explored and studied, and in-situ crustal stress measuring and real-time monitoring is one of the effective ways for earthquake prediction. |
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| Keywords: | in-situ crustal stress measuring and real-time monitoring earthquake prediction in-situ crustal stress real-time monitoring station at Pinggu District in Beijing in-situ crustal stress real-time monitoring station at Baoxing in Sichuan Province |
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