| 地震空区法在大地震危险性初判中的应用——以青藏高原东南缘为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘艳辉,赵根模,吴中海,李跃华,马丹,蒋瑶.地震空区法在大地震危险性初判中的应用——以青藏高原东南缘为例[J].地质力学学报,2014,20(3):254-273. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘艳辉 赵根模 吴中海 李跃华 马丹 蒋瑶 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国地质科学院地质力学研究所, 北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国地质调查局项目“青藏高原东南缘重要活动断裂厘定与活动构造体系综合研究”，“南北构造带活动构造体系综合调查与研究”，中国地质科学院地质力学研究所基本科研业务费项目“成果集成与战略研究(2013-2014)”，国家自然科学基金项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 以ARCGIS系列软件和VS 2010、SQL Server 2008为平台, 通过融合集成活动构造、地震地质和国家基础地理信息, 在初步建立的青藏高原东南缘活动构造空间数据库系统基础上, 利用地震围空区方法, 针对研究区进行区域大地震危险性中长期预测分析。通过地震信息分时间、分震级的整理与数据输出, 分析汇总了11例M≥7.0大震震例的地震空区活动图像以及围空区发震震级与围空区特征与参数。在总结出的经验公式基础上, 进一步利用1950-2012年的M≥5.0地震数据, 对该区地震围空区的发生与发育状况进行了初步分析与研究, 并对未来可能发生大震的发震位置及震级进行了综合分析。研究结果表明, 玉树-鲜水河-小江断裂带所围限的青藏高原东南缘地区存在6个比较突出的与区域重要的晚第四纪活动构造带或断裂带相对应的大地震围空区, 分别是错那-沃卡裂谷, 东喜马拉雅构造结, 安宁河-则木河断裂, 南汀河断裂-红河断裂, 畹町断裂-南汀河断裂, 澜沧-景洪断裂东段。这些围空区中主要活动断裂带的晚第四纪活动性与历史地震活动状况也都显示出未来几年至几十年存在发生大地震的危险性, 在今后的地震预报工作中应给予特别关注。应用实践表明, 通过活动构造数据库的建设可快速有效地实现对区域大地震围空区的动态分析、辨别及大地震危险性初判。
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| 关 键 词： | 空间数据库 活动断裂 地震危险性 地震围空区 地震预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014/4/30 0:00:00 |
APPLICATION OF SPATIAL DATABASE TECHNOLOGY AND SEISMIC GAP METHOD TO SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS AROUND SOUTH-EASTERN TIBETAN PLATEAU |
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| LIU Yan-hui,ZHAO Gen-mo,WU Zhong-hai,LI Yue-hu,MA Dan and JIANG Yao.APPLICATION OF SPATIAL DATABASE TECHNOLOGY AND SEISMIC GAP METHOD TO SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS AROUND SOUTH-EASTERN TIBETAN PLATEAU[J].Journal of Geomechanics,2014,20(3):254-273. |
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| Authors: | LIU Yan-hui ZHAO Gen-mo WU Zhong-hai LI Yue-hu MA Dan and JIANG Yao |
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| Institution: | 1.Institute of Geomechanics, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China2.School of Earth Science and Resources, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China3.Seismological Bureau of Tianjin City, Tianjin 300201, China4.College of Resource Environment and Tourism, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the software platform of ArcGIS (invented by ESRI), VS2010, and SQL Server 2008, the spatial database system of the southeastern Tibetan Plateau active tectonic zones that can provide a useful platform for predicting the mid-long term megaseism on active tectonic zones is preliminary established. Taking the study of active faults of southeastern Tibetan Plateau as an example, the research result shows the platform is effective and practical to predict the megaseism. According to the active faults database, 11 cases of the seismic gap's (M≥7.0) parameters and characteristics classified by time are analyzed. On the basis of the empirical formula, this paper propose preliminary analysis on the development of the seismic gaps (M≥5.0) data from 1950 to 2012 and comprehensive analysis on the potential hypocenter and magnitude in southeastern Tibetan Plateau in the future. The results show there are six significant potential seismic gaps around the southeastern Tibetan Plateau that confined by Yushu-Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang Fault, including the Cona-Oiga rift zone, eastern Himalayan syntaxis, Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang Fault zone, Nantinghe and Honghe Fault, Wanding fault-Nanting River fault zone, with the eastern segment of the Lancang-Jinghong fault zone being dangerous areas in next few years probably. Combining with the historical seismicity, late quaternary activity of the active faults in seismic gap indicate the forthcoming earthquake prediction should be paid great attention to. |
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| Keywords: | spatial database active fault seismic hazard seismic gap earthquake prediction |
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