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Error inflation in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis |
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| Authors: | Jens-Uwe Klügel |
| Institution: | aNPP Goesgen Daeniken, 4658 Daeniken, Switzerland |
| Abstract: | Based on a consistent interpretation of earthquake occurrence as a stochastic process I demonstrate that the mathematical model of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) as it is in use today is inaccurate and leads to systematic errors in the calculation process. These mathematical errors may be regarded as an important contributor to the unrealistic results obtained by traditional PSHA for low probabilities of exceedance in recent projects. |
| Keywords: | Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Error Ground motion prediction |
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