| 基坑变形的灰色-时序动态预报方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 肖武权,冷伍明.基坑变形的灰色-时序动态预报方法[J].水文地质工程地质,2005,32(1):113-116. |
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| 作者姓名： | 肖武权 冷伍明 |
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| 作者单位： | 中南大学土木建筑学院,长沙,410075 |
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| 摘 要： | 基坑变形是一个动态的相互依存的过程。在基坑开挖与施工过程中,可用灰色理论GM(1,1)与时间序列AR组合模型预测其变形发展。灰色模型预测发展趋势,时间序列预测其随机部分。根据某时间序列变形观测值分别建立灰色与时间序列预测模型,并随着新数据的加入适时修改模型参数。工程实例研究表明:用组合模型预测变形值,其误差大多数情况下小于5%;在数据较少或变形数据变化较大时,组合模型预测值明显优于单一模型预测值。但在数据较多且变化平稳时,用单一的灰色模型与灰色时间序列组合模型预测误差相差不大。预测步数越多,则预测精度越低。
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| 关 键 词： | 基坑 变形预测 GM AR组合模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-3665(2005)01-0113-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年3月18日 |
A grey time-sequential combined model for dynamic prediction of foundation pit displacement |
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| XIAO Wu-quan,LENG Wu-ming.A grey time-sequential combined model for dynamic prediction of foundation pit displacement[J].Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,2005,32(1):113-116. |
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| Authors: | XIAO Wu-quan LENG Wu-ming |
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| Abstract: | Deformation of foundation pit is a dynamic dependent process. During the pit excavation and construction, a grey time series combined model can be used to predict the deformation. The displacement trend value is calculated by using a grey model. And the random value is calculated by using a time series model. On the basis of a series of displacement data at the moment, grey and time sequential model can be established respectively. With the addition of new deformation data, the model parameters are continuously modified. The deformation prediction of the foundation pit has showed that the error between measure and prediction value is mostly below 5 percent. Under the condition of small and unstable data, the combined prediction value is superior to the single grey model. But with the more and stable data, the prediction deformation value difference by combined or single model is little. The more prediction steps are, the errors are. |
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| Keywords: | foundation pit deformation prediction grey time sequential combined model |
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