| 基于哑变量分析的龙驹坝地区崩塌灾害易发性评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙巧,唐朝晖,李远耀,柴波,卢继指.基于哑变量分析的龙驹坝地区崩塌灾害易发性评价[J].水文地质工程地质,2017,0(3):127-135. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙巧 唐朝晖 李远耀 柴波 卢继指 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国地质大学（武汉）工程学院，湖北 武汉 430074；2.中国地质大学（武汉）地质调查研究院，湖北 武汉430074；3.中国地质大学（武汉）环境学院，湖北 武汉430074；4.广西交通规划勘察设计研究院有限公司，广西 南宁530029 |
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| 基金项目： | 地质调查项目（12120113007600）；国家自然科学基金项目(41572256) |
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| 摘 要： | 选择合适的评价模型对准确评价崩塌灾害的易发性至关重要。以磨刀溪流域龙驹坝地区崩塌灾害为对象，对设置哑变量和未设置哑变量的Logistic回归模型进行比选分析，准确建立区域崩塌灾害易发性区划。分析表明:根据Cox & Snell R2和Nagelkerke R2统计量、混淆矩阵、hosmer-Lemeshow检验的结果，设置了哑变量的回归模型对样本的拟合效果较好，对灾害发生的判对率高。设置哑变量的回归模型崩塌概率归一值集中于极易崩区和易崩区，比重和为93%；未设置哑变量的模型仅为65%，前者的区划效果更佳。
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| 关 键 词： | Logistic回归模型 易发性评价 崩塌 哑变量 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-07-29 |
| 修稿时间： | 2016-11-01 |
Susceptibility assessment of rock collapse hazards in Longjuba area based on dummy variables analysis |
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| SUN Qiao,TANG Zhaohui,LI Yuanyao,CHAI Bo,LU Jizhi.Susceptibility assessment of rock collapse hazards in Longjuba area based on dummy variables analysis[J].Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,2017,0(3):127-135. |
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| Authors: | SUN Qiao TANG Zhaohui LI Yuanyao CHAI Bo LU Jizhi |
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| Institution: | 1.Engineering Faculty，China University of Geosciences，Wuhan，Hubei430074，China；2.Institute of Geological Survey，China University of Geosciences，Wuhan，Hubei430074，China；3.School of Environmental Studies，China University of Geosciences，Wuhan，Hubei430074，China；4.Guangxi Communications Planning Surveying and Designing Institute Co.,Ltd，Nanning，Guangxi530029，China |
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| Abstract: | Selecting the appropriate assessment model is crucial to the susceptibility assessment of rock collapse hazards. Taking the collapse hazards in the Longjuba area of the Modaoxi basin as an example, this article establishes a logistic regression model considering dummy variables and a logistic regression model not considering dummy variables, and the models are compared to accurately establish the susceptibility zoning. The analysis results show that according to the Cox & Snell R2 statistical results, the Nagelkerke R2 statistical results, the confusion matrix results, and the hosmer-Lemeshow results, the regression model considering dummy variables provides a better fit to the samples and a higher right percentage of classification whether collapse has occurred. In the regression model considering dummy variables, the normalized probability values of the high easy-happening area and the easy-happening area are 93%. Comparing to only 65% in the model not considering dummy variables, the former has a better zoning effect. |
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