| 基于灰色马尔柯夫预报模型地下水动态预报研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙金丹,于兴杰,畅建霞,黄强.基于灰色马尔柯夫预报模型地下水动态预报研究[J].地下水,2008,30(1):1-3. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙金丹 于兴杰 畅建霞 黄强 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 陕西煤炭地质局131大队,陕西,韩城,715400
2. 西安理工大学,水电学院,陕西,西安,710048 |
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| 摘 要： | 随着社会经济发展,地下水超采日益严重,为了科学地保护和合理利用地下水,本研究讨论了地下水动态预报方法.针对 GM (1,1) 灰色预报和马尔柯夫预报的优缺点,提出了灰色与马尔柯夫相耦合的灰色马尔柯夫预报模型,最后以河南某地区地下水埋深为例,验证了该方法的可行性.
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| 关 键 词： | GM(1 1)模型 "马氏性"检验 灰色马尔柯夫模型 地下水动态预报 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-1184(2008)01-0001-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年10月22 |
Study Groundwater Dynamic Forecast Based on Grey Markov Model |
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| SUN Jin-dan,YU Xing-jie,CHANG Jian-xia,HUANG Qiang.Study Groundwater Dynamic Forecast Based on Grey Markov Model[J].Groundwater,2008,30(1):1-3. |
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| Authors: | SUN Jin-dan YU Xing-jie CHANG Jian-xia HUANG Qiang |
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| Abstract: | With the development of social economy,the exploitation of groundwater is serious.For scientific protection and reasonable utilization of groundwater,the article studies and discusses groundwater dynamic-forecast method.Aiming at the advantages and disadvantages of grey GM(1,1) forecast and Markov forecast model,a new method,called grey Markov model,is based on analyzing grey theory and Markov theory.This forecast model is identified by taking forecast of groundwater depth in Henan province and gets that it... |
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| Keywords: | GM(1 1) Model Markov Property Test Markov Prediction Groundwater Dynamic Forecas |
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