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磷矿市场走势分析
引用本文:徐少康,;张慧敏,;焦学涛,;刘辰炯,;潘林林.磷矿市场走势分析[J].化工矿产地质,2014(4):241-249.
作者姓名:徐少康  ;张慧敏  ;焦学涛  ;刘辰炯  ;潘林林
作者单位:[1]中化地质矿山总局地质研究院,河北涿州072754; [2]中化地质矿山总局河南地质勘查院,河南郑州450011
基金项目:本文抛砖引玉,希望有关专家和人士批评指正.本文引用了国际化肥工业协会(IFA)和有关单位的数据,在此仅表谢意.
摘    要:经过了50余年的持续增长,全球磷肥和磷矿市场自2012年下半年以来出现了下行趋势,属必然发生的理性回归,其根本原因为市场误导出现的产能过剩。磷块岩产量主要受制于磷肥消耗量,二者存在高度正相关性。目前条件下,全球磷肥和磷块岩年消耗量的极限分别约为38.9Mt和172.49Mt,未来一个时期,年消耗量走势分别在各自的极限值上下波动。国家有关部门应从宏观层面进行布局和指导,企业不应盲目"跟风",以避免出现"周期性的危机"。

关 键 词:磷矿  磷肥  市场分析

ANALYSIS ON PHOSPHATE MARKET BEHAVIOR
Institution:Xu Shaokang Zhang Huimin Jiao Xuetao Liu Chenjiong Pan Linlin(1. Geological Institute of China Chemical Geology and Mine Bureau, Zhuozhou, HebeL 072754, China;2. Henan geological exploration Institute of China Chemical Geology And Mine Bereau, Zhengzhou, Henan, 450011, China)
Abstract:Through more than 50 years sustained growth, there is a clear downturn in global phosphate fertilizer and phosphate market, which is inevitable rational return.The basic reason is excess capacity causd by market misleading. Phosphate rock output is mainly influenced by phosphate fertilizer consumption and there is Highly positive correlation between them. Under the present condition, the limitation of globle phosphate fertilizer and phosphate rock consumption is about 38.9Mt and 172.49Mt. In the future, annual consumption will wave up and down limitation. The related state departments should lay out and guide At a macro level.the companies should not follow like sheep to avoid the periodic crises.
Keywords:phosphate  Phosphate fertilizer  market analysis
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