| 青藏高原积雪和季节冻融层的突变特征及其对中国降水的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 高荣,钟海玲,董文杰,韦志刚.青藏高原积雪和季节冻融层的突变特征及其对中国降水的影响[J].冰川冻土,2010,32(3). |
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| 作者姓名： | 高荣 钟海玲 董文杰 韦志刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象局,气候研究开放实验室,国家气候中心,北京,100081;北京师范大学,地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京,100875;中国科学院,寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃,兰州,730000 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目，科技支撑项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用青藏高原气象台站观测的积雪和冻土资料,建立了高原积雪和季节冻融层1965—2004年的变化序列,通过滑动T平均、M-K检验、动力学分割算法(BG算法)等方法检验出高原积雪没有发生明显的突变过程,而高原季节冻融层在1987年前后有一次明显的突变,冻结深度减少比较显著.当高原积雪偏少时,华南和西南降水偏多,而当高原冻结较厚时,全国的降水几乎都偏少.通过计算高原积雪和季节冻融层与全国夏季降水的单因子相关和复相关发现,积雪和季节性冻土对中国夏季降水都有一定的可预测性,但是如果共同考虑两个因子的影响,则能够提高夏季降水预测的准确率.考虑两个因子的共同影响,有3个明显的相关带,分别是北部沿大兴安岭经太行山北部到陕北最后到河西走廊,中部在长江中下游地区,南部则是沿武夷山经南岭到云贵高原中部.
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| 关 键 词： | 青藏高原 积雪 季节冻融层 降水 |
The Abrupt Changing Characteristics of Snow Cover and Seasonal Freezing-Thawing Layer in the Tibetan Plateau and Their Impact on Summer Precipitation in China |
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| GAO Rong,ZHONG Hai-ling,DONG Wen-jie,WEI Zhi-gang.The Abrupt Changing Characteristics of Snow Cover and Seasonal Freezing-Thawing Layer in the Tibetan Plateau and Their Impact on Summer Precipitation in China[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2010,32(3). |
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| Authors: | GAO Rong ZHONG Hai-ling DONG Wen-jie WEI Zhi-gang |
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| Institution: | GAO Rong1,ZHONG Hai-ling1,DONG Wen-jie2,WEI Zhi-gang3(1.Laboratory of Climate Studies,National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China,2.State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Ecology Resource,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,3.Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou Gansu 730000,China) |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,the change series of snow cover and seasonal freezing-thawing layer from 1965 to 2004 in the Tibetan Plateau have been established by using the observation data of meteorological stations.The overlapping T average,M-K test and B-G algorithm have been used to test the abrupt change of snow cover and seasonal freezing-thawing layer in the Tibetan Plateau.The results show that no obvious abrupt change in snow cover can be seen,but an obvious abrupt change in seasonal freezing-thawing layer occurr... |
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| Keywords: | Tibetan Plateau snow cover seasonal freezing-thawing layer precipitation |
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