| 西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的信号、影响和前景初步探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 施雅风,沈永平,胡汝骥.西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的信号、影响和前景初步探讨[J].冰川冻土,2002,24(3):219-226. |
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| 作者姓名： | 施雅风 沈永平 胡汝骥 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院,寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃,兰州,730000;2. 中国科学院,新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆,乌鲁木齐,830011 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院知识创新工程项目;CACX2002102; |
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| 摘 要： | 全球大幅度变暖, 水循环加快, 增强降水和蒸发. 中国西北部从19世纪小冰期结束以来100 a左右处于波动性变暖变干过程中. 1987年起新疆以天山西部为主地区, 出现了气候转向暖湿的强劲信号, 降水量、冰川消融量和径流量连续多年增加, 导致湖泊水位显著上升、洪水灾害猛烈增加、植被改善、沙尘暴减少. 新疆其他地区以及祁连山中西段的降水和径流也有增加趋势. 这样气候转型前景如何, 是仅为年代际波动还是可发展为世纪性趋势, 是只限于天山西部还是可能扩及整个西北以至华北. 从引用现有区域气候模式预测, 对径流变化模式预测和相似古气候情景的讨论, 认为转向暖湿的趋势可以肯定, 但目前尚不能确切预测转型扩大在时间上与空间上变化的速度和程度.
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| 关 键 词： | 气候转型 信号 影响 前景 西北地区 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-0240(2002)03-0219-08 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002年6月25日 |
Preliminary Study on Signal, Impact and Foreground of Climatic Shift from Warm-Dry to Warm-Humid in Northwest China |
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| SHI Ya feng ,SHEN Yong ping ,HU Ru ji.Preliminary Study on Signal, Impact and Foreground of Climatic Shift from Warm-Dry to Warm-Humid in Northwest China[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2002,24(3):219-226. |
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| Authors: | SHI Ya feng SHEN Yong ping HU Ru ji |
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| Institution: | SHI Ya feng 1,SHEN Yong ping 1,HU Ru ji 2 |
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| Abstract: | A rapid, high amplitude global climatic warming would speed global water cycle and strengthen rainfall and evaporation. Climatic warming and drying course were dominated in past about 100 years since the end of Little Ice Age in Northwest China. The strong signals of climatic shift to warm humid pattern have been appearing in the western part of Chinese Tianshan Mountains and neighborhood regions including Northern Xinjiang since 1987. Precipitation, meltwater of glacier and runoff of rivers increase continuously , and results in lake level rising, flood damaged magnification and intensified, vegetation coverage extending and dust storm weaken in western parts of Northwest China. In the other areas of Xinjiang, and the middle and western section of Qilian Mountains, the precipitations and runoff of rivers have also an increasing tendency. How is the foreground of climatic shift to warn humid conditions, it is just restricted to decadal fluctuation, or possibility to century scale shift trend, and is just limited to western Tianshan or could extend and/or wholly Northwest China down to North China?Using the results of regional climatic model simulation from IPCC and China Assessment Report published, predicting river runoff regime and similar paleoclimate scenarios for the Northwest China are analysed and discussed, and the trend of shifting warm humid climate can be fixed in recent future. However, uncertain of projected results remain, and rating and magnitude of climatic shift extending in temporal and spatial scales can not at present be projected in detail and in being exactitude. |
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| Keywords: | climatic shift signal impact foreground Northwest China |
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