| CMIP3模式对未来50a欧亚大陆雪水当量的预估 |
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| 引用本文： | 马丽娟,罗勇,秦大河.CMIP3模式对未来50a欧亚大陆雪水当量的预估[J].冰川冻土,2011,33(4):707-720. |
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| 作者姓名： | 马丽娟 罗勇 秦大河 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气候中心,北京,100081;中国气象局,北京100081／中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(40901045)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 为研究预估未来50a欧亚大陆雪水当量，基于遥感数据，用误差百分率、空间相关和误差标准差等统计方法，评估了14个CMIP3模式在20C3M的雪水当量产品，诊断各模式对欧亚大陆雪水当量的模拟能力，在此基础上对模拟效果较好的10个模式产品进行多模式集合，分析了A2和B1情景下2002—2060年欧亚大陆雪水当量的变化．结果表...
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| 关 键 词： | 雪水当量 预估 CMIP3 欧亚大陆 气候变化 |
Snow Water Equivalent over Eurasia in Next 50 Years Projected by CMIP3 Models |
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| MA Li-juan,LUO Yong,QIN Da-he.Snow Water Equivalent over Eurasia in Next 50 Years Projected by CMIP3 Models[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2011,33(4):707-720. |
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| Authors: | MA Li-juan LUO Yong QIN Da-he |
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| Institution: | MA Li-juan1,LUO Yong1,QIN Da-he2,3(1.National Climate Center,Beijing 100081,China,2.China Meteorological Administration,3.State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences,Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and EngineeringResearch Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou Gansu 730000,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the remote sensing snow water equivalent(SWE) data,the simulated SWE in 20C3M experiments from 14 models attending the third phase of the Coupled Models for Inter-comparison Project was first evaluated by computing difference percentage,spatial correlation coefficient,and standard deviation of bias during 1979-2000.Then,the diagnosed 10 models with higher ability in simulating Eurasian SWE were aggregated by arithmetic mean to project the changes of Eurasian SWE in 2002-2060.The results show that S... |
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| Keywords: | snow water equivalent projection CMIP3 Eurasia climate change simulation |
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