| 全球气候变化下青藏公路沿线冻土变化响应模型的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李新,李文君,吴青柏.全球气候变化下青藏公路沿线冻土变化响应模型的研究[J].冰川冻土,2001,23(1):1-6. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李新 李文君 吴青柏 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所冻土工程国家重点实验室,
2. 南京大学地球科学系,中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所冻土工程国家重点实验室, |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院冰冻圈特别支持项目和中国科学院旱区寒区环境与工程研究所创新项目(CA℃X210047) |
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| 摘 要： | 利用英国Hadley气候预测与研究中心GCM模型HADCM2预测的气温变化背景，分别提取青藏公路沿线地区在2009年，2049年和2099年的气温参数，考虑年平均气温和年平均地温的关系及年平均地温与海拔，纬度的关系模型，多年冻土下界分布模型和地温带分带，建立青藏公路沿线多年冻土下界分布的响应模型和多年冻土地温带的响应模型，研究结果表明，2009年青藏公路沿线的冻土变化较小，多年冻土极稳定带,稳定带和基本稳定带仅发生微弱的变化，基本稳定过渡带和不稳定带变化较大，多年冻土,逐渐退化，2049年青藏公路沿线多年冻土各地温带变化较大，但仍以基本稳定过渡带和不稳定带变化最大，多年冻土发生较大范围的退化；2099年后青藏公路沿线冻土发生了很大的变化，多年冻土发生大面积的退化，融区面积逐渐增大，多年冻土地温带也发生了较大的变化，其中多年冻土上带仅保留了稳定带，极稳定带全部消失，稳定带和基本稳定带全部转化为不稳定带。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候 GCM模型 冻土变化 响应模型 青藏公路 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-0240(2001)01-0028-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2000年8月14日 |
The Response Model of Permafrost along the Qinghai－Tibetan Highway under Climate Change |
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| WU Qing bai ,LI Xin ,LI Wen jun.The Response Model of Permafrost along the Qinghai－Tibetan Highway under Climate Change[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2001,23(1):1-6. |
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| Authors: | WU Qing bai LI Xin LI Wen jun |
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| Institution: | WU Qing bai 1,2,LI Xin 1,LI Wen jun 1 |
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| Abstract: | GCM model HADCM2, which was developed in the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research in Britain, was adopted for climate scenarios. Only air temperature scenarios in permafrost response model are used. In order to preserve the original air temperature forecast results in the HADCM2; the nearest－neighbor method was used to resample the air temperature for the years 2009, 2049 and 2099 into 0.5°×0.5°grids compatible with the DEM. The predication shows that the mean raising of air temperature will be 0.46 ℃ in 2009, 0.78 ℃ in 2049 and 2. 53 ℃2 in 2099 from 36° to 33.5° N, and 0. 72 ℃ in 2009, 0.78 ℃ in 2049 and 2. 68 ℃ in 2099 from 33.5° to 31° N.
Altitude model, which was proposed for the permafrost distribution limit in Northern Hemisphere, is used to determine the permafrost distribution limit (Equation 1). Permafrost zone model, which is proposed by the multiple linear regression relationships among MGATs, altitude and latitude, is used to determine the permafrost zone distribution (Equation 2).
The altitude model does not contain climate variables, such as air temperature. Thus, the relationship between predicted air temperature change AT of HADCM2 and permafrost lower limit uplifting AH is established as Equation 3.
The relationship between the MAGTs and MAATs can be established as Equation 4. And assuming that rising air temperature would result in immediate permafrost warming. The rising MAATs at lower limit will result in changing MAGTs of permafrost zones. The response model of permafrost zone is proposed on the Equations (3) and (5):
Under the support of GIS, the response model of permafrost zone and the DTM along the Qinghai －Tibetan Highway, the permafrost change of the highway are obtained under GCM climate scenario in 2009, 2049, and 2099. The results show that permafrost zone will greatly change after climate warming. Their area is expected to decrease and permafrost zone will be moving upward and degrading. In order to easily discussing permafrost zone change, the relative changes of permafrost zones including 30 km nearby the highway are considered. The area of extreme stable zone will shrink from 5. 59% at present to 0. 65% in 2099, stable zone from 16.32% in present to 3.28% in 2099, and sub-stable zone from 25.5% in present to 17.43% in 2099. Area will increase with air temperature raising for transition zone and unstable zone. Area of transition zone will change from 22.85% at present to 31.01% in 2099 and that of unstable zone from 10. 8% at present to 27.46 % in 2099. Extreme stable zone will transform into stable zone, stable zone into sub-stable zone, sub-stable zone into transition zone, transition zone into unstable zone and unstable zone will be in the stage of degradation. |
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| Keywords: | climate change GCM permafrost change response model |
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