| 黑河中游灌区地下水位短期季节性变化趋势预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 吉喜斌,康尔泗,陈仁升,赵文智,金博文,张智慧.黑河中游灌区地下水位短期季节性变化趋势预测[J].冰川冻土,2006,28(3):421-427. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吉喜斌 康尔泗 陈仁升 赵文智 金博文 张智慧 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院,寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃,兰州,730000
2. 中国科学院,寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃,兰州,730000;中国科学院,临泽内陆河流域综合研究站,甘肃,临泽,734200 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学研知识创新工程方向性项目(KZCX3-SW-329)，中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所知识创新工程项目(CACX2003102)，国家自然科学基金项目(40401012)，中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所知识创新(2004112)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用黑河中游平川、板桥、鸭暖和蓼泉灌区8眼观测井的1985—2002年逐月实测平均地下水位埋深资料(共1 728个月),基于帕森斯季节性指数理论,分别建立了黑河中游灌区具有代表性的平川、板桥、鸭暖、蓼泉四灌区共8眼观测井季节地下水位埋深动态变化预测模型,并用2003年各观测井的资料进行了趋势预测进行检验.结果表明:观测井地下水位变化过程呈线性递减的相关系数越显著,其拟合误差和预测误差越小.各观测井地下水位帕森斯季节性指数模型拟合差≤0.05 m的月数占总检验月数的比例平均为38.33%,拟合差≤0.10 m的月数占总检验月数的比例平均为72.50%,>0.25 m的月数占总检验月数的比例平均为2.00%;各观测井预测误差≤0.05 m的月数占总预报月数的比例平均为36.46%,预测误差≤0.10 m的月数占总预报月数的比例平均为64.38%,>0.25 m的平均比例仅为2.00%,说明帕森斯季节性指数模型可以对短期黑河中游典型灌区地下水位动态趋势进行预测.
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| 关 键 词： | 黑河中游 灌区 地下水位变化 趋势预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-0240(2006)03-0421-07 |
| 收稿时间： | 10 6 2005 12:00AM |
| 修稿时间： | 12 22 2005 12:00AM |
Prediction of Groundwater Level in the Irrigating Areas of the Middle Reaches of Heihe River |
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| JI Xi-bin,KANG Er-si,CHEN Ren-sheng,ZHAO Wen-zhi,JIN Bo-wen,ZHANG Zhi-hui.Prediction of Groundwater Level in the Irrigating Areas of the Middle Reaches of Heihe River[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2006,28(3):421-427. |
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| Authors: | JI Xi-bin KANG Er-si CHEN Ren-sheng ZHAO Wen-zhi JIN Bo-wen ZHANG Zhi-hui |
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| Institution: | 1. Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou Gansu 730000, China ; 2. Linze Inland River Basin Comprehensive Research Station, Chinese Ecosystem Network Research, Linze Gansu 734200, China |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,based on the Person's seasonal index theory,using 1 728-month data on groundwater level in the period of 1985-2002 from 8 wells,which conducted in Pingchuan,Banqiao,Yanuan and Liaoquan irrigating areas,the groundwater level prognostic equations for different wells were established,which were applied to predict the short-term groundwater level in the irrigating areas of the middle reaches of Heihe River.The prediction shows that,in the period of 1985-2002,the number of month with fitting error of the groundwater level prognostic equation less than 0.05 m accounts for 38.33% of total tested number of month,and that less than 0.10 m accounts for 90% of the total,but that exceeding 0.25 m accounts only for 2.00%.Furthermore,the model of predicting groundwater level was tested by 96-month data from the 8 wells in different irrigating areas in 2003,showing that the prediction accuracy is in direct proportion to the significance of correlation coefficient.It is found that the number of month with predicted error of groundwater level less than 0.05 m accounts for 34.46% of the total predicted number of month,and that less than 0.10 m accounts for 95.83% of the total,but that exceeding 0.25 m accounts only for 2.00%. Therefore,it is concluded that the model of predicting groundwater level with the help of the Person's season's index theory is valid to predict groundwater level in the irrigating areas of the middle reaches of Heihe River. |
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| Keywords: | middle reaches of Heihe River irrigating areas groundwater level fluctuation basin trend prediction |
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