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新疆河流洪水与洪灾的变化趋势
引用本文:吴素芬,张国威.新疆河流洪水与洪灾的变化趋势[J].冰川冻土,2003,25(2):199-203.
作者姓名:吴素芬  张国威
作者单位:新疆,水文水资源局,新疆,乌鲁木齐,830000
基金项目:中国科学院知识创新工程项目;KZCX1-10-06和KZCX2-301;
摘    要:在西北气候由暖于转向暖湿的过程中,新疆河流的洪水和洪灾反映明显.对新疆29条河流选取年最大洪水,统计出超标准洪水、20a一遇、50a一遇洪水的出现频次进行分析,结果显示1987年后洪水量级、洪水频次呈增加的变化趋势.通过20世纪90年代以来灾害性洪水出现的频次、灾害损失的变化比较分析,90年代以来灾害性洪水尤其是灾害性暴雨洪水和突发性洪水呈现增加的态势,1987—2000年的灾害损失与1950—1986年相比增加了30倍.

关 键 词:新疆  河流  洪水  洪灾  频次  暴雨
文章编号:1000-0240(2003)02-0199-05
修稿时间:2002年10月16日

Preliminary Approach on the Floods and Their Calamity Changing Tendency in Xinjiang Region
WU Su fen,ZHANG Guo wei.Preliminary Approach on the Floods and Their Calamity Changing Tendency in Xinjiang Region[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2003,25(2):199-203.
Authors:WU Su fen  ZHANG Guo wei
Abstract:Floods and their calamity in Xinjiang Region may apparently reflect the climatic shift from warm dry to warm humid in Northwest China. Therefore, frequencies of exceed standard flood and floods with possibility of 5% and 2% are worked out from statistics of annual maximum floods of 29 rivers in Xinjiang Regions. The changing tendency and regional distribution of the floods was analyzed. It is found that the flood amount and frequency have been increasing since 1987. By analyzing the frequency of calamity flood and comparing their calamity losses, it is believed that calamity floods, especially rainstorm floods and catastrophic floods, have been increasing since the 1990s. The loss due to calamity foods in 1987-2000 increased 30 times as compared with that in 1950-1986, causing serious damage to the national economic construction, as well as to the life and properties in Xinjiang Region.
Keywords:floods and calamity  changing tendency  Xinjiang river s
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