| 北方集中供热系统气象风险评估初探 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈莉,李帅.北方集中供热系统气象风险评估初探[J].冰川冻土,2018,40(6):1285-1290. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈莉 李帅 |
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| 作者单位： | 黑龙江省气象局,黑龙江 哈尔滨,150001;哈尔滨市气象局,黑龙江 哈尔滨,150028 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局气候变化专项项目（CCSF201314）资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 供热管网爆裂、跑冒滴漏是北方集中供热城市面临的常见问题，供热管网出现大型故障往往是在室外寒冷的隆冬时节，如果间断或限额供热时间过长，将会造成严重的社会和经济影响。同时在极端低温情况下，可能会造成热源供应不足，出现限额供热现象，不能保证室内舒适度，影响人们的正常生活。本文提出了能源供应气象风险评估和热网维修寒冷风险评估方法，并进行了案例评估，以期为未来进行相关风险评估提供参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 气象风险 寒冷风险 能源供应 热网维修时间 集中供热系统 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-01-27 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018-11-27 |
Meteorological risk assessment on the central heating system in north of China |
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| CHEN Li,LI Shuai.Meteorological risk assessment on the central heating system in north of China[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2018,40(6):1285-1290. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Li LI Shuai |
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| Institution: | 1. Heilongjiang Meteorological Bureau, Harbin 150001, China;2. Harbin Meteorological Bureau, Harbin 150028, China |
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| Abstract: | Blowout and leak of heat-supply pipe are popular in urban centralized heating system. Large heat-supply network failure often occurs in the depth of winter. If the period of no heat-supply or limited heat-supply for repairing the network is too long, it will cause serious social and economic impact. At the same time, the energy supply might be lack if weather keeps extreme cold. In order to strengthen the risk assessment and emergency management capability, it is necessary to offer a method of quantitative assessment on energy for heating and methods of meteorological risk assessment on energy supply and heat network maintenance. The energy supply risk is followed by a normal distribution. Formulas are proposed to describe the cold risk level corresponding to the period of heat network maintenance in this paper. Future more, some risk assessment cases are provided. |
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| Keywords: | meteorological risk cold risk energy supply the period of heat network maintenance the central heating system |
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