| 青藏高原沱沱河地区冻土融化深度预测的概率分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 石云静,马巍.青藏高原沱沱河地区冻土融化深度预测的概率分析[J].冰川冻土,2011,33(1):126-131. |
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| 作者姓名： | 石云静 马巍 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所冻土工程国家重点实验室,甘肃,兰州,730000;中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所冻土工程国家重点实验室,甘肃,兰州,730000 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院西部行动计划(二期)项目(KZCX2-XB2-10)资助; 国家自然科学基金创新群体“冻土与寒区工程”(40821001)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 多年冻土空间异质性和边界条件及土性参数的可变性,往往会导致了冻土变化预测的不确定性,全球气候变暖更加剧这一过程.以青藏高原沱沱河地区试验段冻土融化深度预测为例,提出了在全球气候变暖条件下,基于参数服从某一概率分布的确定性模型的概率分析方法,基于此方法进行了融化深度的概率预测.由含水量、干容重的概率分布和20组ATI(空...
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| 关 键 词： | 全球变暖 融化深度 多年冻土 概率分析 失效概率 |
A Probability Analysis for Forecasting the Thaw Depth in Tuotuohe,Tibetan Plateau |
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| SHI Yun-jing,MA Wei.A Probability Analysis for Forecasting the Thaw Depth in Tuotuohe,Tibetan Plateau[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2011,33(1):126-131. |
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| Authors: | SHI Yun-jing MA Wei |
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| Institution: | SHI Yun-jing,MA Wei(State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engineering,Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou Gansu 730000,China) |
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| Abstract: | Due to the spatial heterogeneity of permafrost and the variability of boundary conditions and soil parameters,forecasting the change in frozen soil has an uncertainty and is exacerbated by global warming.In this paper,probability analysis method is proposed on the basis of parameters in deterministic model submiting to some probability distribution under global warming,with a case to forecast the thaw depth for frozen soil in Tuotuohe on the Tibetan Plateau,and then a probabilistic prediction is conducted.T... |
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| Keywords: | global warming thaw depth permafrost probability analysis probability of failure |
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