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| 新疆21世纪气候变化的高分辨率模拟 | |
| 引用本文： | 吴佳,高学杰,石英,Filippo Giorgi.新疆21世纪气候变化的高分辨率模拟[J].冰川冻土,2011,33(3):479-487. |
| 作者姓名： | 吴佳 高学杰 石英 Filippo Giorgi |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国气象科学研究院,北京 100081; 中国科学院 研究生院,北京 100049;国家气候中心,北京 100081 2. 国家气候中心,北京,100081 3. The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, I-34151 Trieste, Italy |
| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展规划(973计划)项目(2009CB4214072007CB411505); 公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200806010); 国家自然科学基金项目(40975041)资助 |
| 摘 要： | 使用一个25 km高水平分辨率区域气候模式(RegCM3),嵌套MIROC3.2_hires全球气候模式结果,进行了IPCC SRES A1B情景下,东亚区域21世纪气候变化的模拟,针对新疆地区进行了分析.首先对模式模拟的当代（1981-2000年）气候进行检验,结果表明:模式对年平均气温、降水的空间分布和数值均具有较... |
| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 区域气候模式 新疆地区 |
Climate Change over Xinjiang Region in the 21st Century Simulated by a High Resolution Regional Climate Model |
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| WU Jia,GAO Xue-jie,SHI Ying,Filippo Giorgi.Climate Change over Xinjiang Region in the 21st Century Simulated by a High Resolution Regional Climate Model[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2011,33(3):479-487. | |
| Authors: | WU Jia GAO Xue-jie SHI Ying Filippo Giorgi |
| Institution: | WU Jia1,2,3,GAO Xue-jie3,SHI Ying3,Filippo Giorgi4(1.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China,2.Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,3.National Climate Center,4.The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics I-34151 Trieste,Italy) |
| Abstract: | Based on a high resolution simulation of the 21st century by a regional climate model(RegCM3) nested within a global climate model(MIROC3.2_hires) over East Asia,climate changes over Xinjiang Region under the IPCC SRES A1B scenario are analyzed.Validation of the model performances in simulating annual mean temperature and precipitation of present time(1981—2000) in the region are firstly carried out.Results show that the spatial distributions and amount of them are well reproduced by the model.Compared to observations,it is found that the model exhibits a warm bias over basins and cold bias over mountainous areas.Moreover,underestimation of precipitation in the basins and overestimation of it over mountain ranges are found in the simulation.Significant warming is simulated in the middle(2041—2060) and the end of the 21st century(2081—2100) over the region,while greater warming in the end of the century,in particular in winter,are found.General increase of precipitation is found both in winter and summer,except in portions of the region.The increase is more profound in the end of the century compared to the middle of it.In addition,the magnitude of the warming and amount of the precipitation increase show strong dependency on topography.In general,the warming is greater over basins,while the increase of precipitation amount is more significant over mountain slopes with seasonal difference.As for the regional mean,greater warming and precipitation increase are found in Xinjiang Region compared to those over the whole China. |
| Keywords: | climate change regional climate model Xinjiang Region |
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