| 1961-2015年山东省济宁市地温与气温变化的相关分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 蔡鹏,李芳,王政权,赵娴.1961-2015年山东省济宁市地温与气温变化的相关分析[J].冰川冻土,2016,38(6):1538-1543. |
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| 作者姓名： | 蔡鹏 李芳 王政权 赵娴 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东省济宁市气象局,山东济宁,272137;江苏省姜堰区气象局,江苏姜堰,225500 |
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| 基金项目： | 山东省气象局2015年青年科研基金项目(2015SDQN08) |
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| 摘 要： | 土壤温度直接影响着作物的生长,在气候变暖的大背景下,研究地面浅层下温度的变化,对指导农业生产意义重大.利用1961-2015年济宁国家级气象站气温和0～ 20 cm地温资料,采用气候倾向率、累积距平、信躁比、蒙特卡罗检验等统计方法,对气温和地温的年、季变化和气候突变及异常特征进行相关分析.结果表明:年、季平均气温和地温均呈极显著增温趋势,增幅为0.18 ～0.58℃·(10a)-1,地温增幅小于气温,地温春季增幅最大,气温冬季增幅最大.年平均地温与气温呈极显著正相关,相关系数均在0.87以上,其中20 cm地温与气温的相关系数最大为0.93,5 cm最小为0.87,春季最大,冬季最小.气温极值的变化与地表温度极值的变化相关性极为显著,平均最低值的相关系数最高.年平均气温和15 cm、20 cm平均地温在1986年、0 cm平均地温在1993年发生了突变,突变前为冷期,突变后为暖期,自20世纪80年代末以来,气温与20 cm地温的变化规律最为接近.四季中,气温与0 cm地温的异常年份具有较好的一致性;春、夏、秋三季地温和气温分别在2014年、2013年、1998年异常偏高,冬季地温异常年份受气温异常的影响最小.
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| 关 键 词： | 地温 气温 气候倾向率 气候突变 异常年份 相关分析 |
Correlation analysis between air and ground temperatures in Jining Prefecture of Shandong Province from 1961 through 2015 |
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| CAI Peng,LI Fang,WANG Zhengquan,ZHAO Xian.Correlation analysis between air and ground temperatures in Jining Prefecture of Shandong Province from 1961 through 2015[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2016,38(6):1538-1543. |
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| Authors: | CAI Peng LI Fang WANG Zhengquan ZHAO Xian |
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| Abstract: | Ground temperature directly affects the growth of crops.Under the background of climate warrmng,the research on the change of temperature in the shallow ground has an important significance for guiding agricultural production.Based on the air temperature and 0 ～ 20-cm ground temperature datasets in Jining National Weather Station during 1961-2015,using climate inclination rate,accumulative anomaly,signal to noise,Monte Carlo test and other statistical methods,their annual and seasonal changes and abrupt changes are analyzed.The results show that both the annual and seasonal averages of air temperature and ground temperature display significant warming trend,with a rate of 0.18 ～0.58 ℃ · (10a)-1.The amplitude of ground temperature warming is less than that of air temperature.The maximum increase in ground temperature appears in spring,and that in air temperature appears in winter.Between annual average ground temperature and air temperature there is significant positive correlation,with a correlation coefficient of 0.87 or more.The maximum correlation coefficient (in spring) is between 20-cm ground temperature and air temperature (0.93);the minimum (in winter) one is between 5-cm ground temperature and air temperature (0.87);Changes in extreme values of air temperature and surface temperature are highly significantly correlated,with the maximum correlation coefficient between their average minimum values.The annual average temperature and 15-cm,20-cm average ground temperatures changed abruptly in 1986,0-cm average ground temperature changed abruptly in 1993,with a cold period before shift and a warm period after shift.Since the late 1980s,the variations of air temperature and 20-cm ground temperature have been closest.There were good consistencies in the anomalous year of air temperature and 0-cm ground temperature among the four seasons;the air and ground temperatures in spring,summer and autumn were anomalously high in 2014,2013 and 1998.The impact of the air temperature anomaly on anomalous ground temperature is smallest in winter. |
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| Keywords: | ground temperature air temperature climate inclination rate climate abrupt change anomalous year correlation analysis |
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