| 气候变暖对长江源径流变化的影响分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 罗玉,秦宁生,庞轶舒,王春学,刘佳,李金建,刘希胜.气候变暖对长江源径流变化的影响分析[J].冰川冻土,2020,42(3):952-964. |
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| 作者姓名： | 罗玉 秦宁生 庞轶舒 王春学 刘佳 李金建 刘希胜 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国气象局 成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室，四川 成都 610072;2.四川省气候中心，四川 成都 610072;3.成都信息工程大学，四川 成都 610225;4.青海省水文水资源勘测局，青海 西宁 810008 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(41772173);四川省科技厅项目(2019YJ0620);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF202034);青海省“高端创新人才千人计划”项目;青海省应用基础研究项目(2019-ZJ-7045) |
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| 摘 要： | 在气候变暖背景下， 20世纪60年代以来， 长江源区气温年和四季增温显著， 蒸发量、 径流量总体呈增加趋势； 进入21世纪后， 源区降水量呈增加趋势。沱沱河作为长江源区的主要径流， 以此为代表研究长江源区气候变暖对径流的影响具有重要的现实意义。利用1981 - 2015年沱沱河水文站径流量资料、 沱沱河同期气象站降水量、 气温、 蒸发量的实测资料， 分析了长江源区沱沱河降水、 气温、 蒸发量变化对径流量的影响。结果显示： 在全球变暖背景下， 近35 a来沱沱河流域年及四季平均气温、 平均最高气温、 最低气温均呈显著增加趋势； 年及春、 夏、 秋季降水量增加而冬季降水量减少； 春、 冬季蒸发量呈增加趋势， 年及夏、 秋季蒸发量呈减少趋势。沱沱河流域降水量是影响径流量大小的最主要的气候因子， 夏季降水量的增多与夏季径流量的增多关系密切， 年平均最低气温升高导致的冰川和积雪融水对径流量的影响次之， 蒸发量对径流量的影响明显低于前两者。
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| 关 键 词： | 长江源 气候变暖 沱沱河 气候因子 径流量 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-05-11 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019-07-26 |
Effect of climate warming on the runoff of source regions of the Yangtze River： take Tuotuo River basin as an example |
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| Yu LUO,Ningsheng QIN,Yishu PANG,Chunxue WANG,Jia LIU,Jinjian LI,Xisheng LIU.Effect of climate warming on the runoff of source regions of the Yangtze River： take Tuotuo River basin as an example[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2020,42(3):952-964. |
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| Authors: | Yu LUO Ningsheng QIN Yishu PANG Chunxue WANG Jia LIU Jinjian LI Xisheng LIU |
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| Institution: | 1.Institute of Plateau Meteorology，China Meteorological Administration / Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin，Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province，Chengdu 610072，China;2.Sichuan Climate Center，Chengdu 610225，China;3.Chengdu University of Information Technology，Chengdu 610225，China;4.Hydrological and Water Resources Survey Bureau of Qinghai Province，Xining 810008，China |
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| Abstract: | Under the background of climate warming， the annual and seasonal temperatures of the Yangtze River since the 1960s have shown a significant warming trend； evaporation and runoff have generally increased. Since the beginning of the 21st century， precipitation in the source regions of the Yangtze River has increased. Tuotuo River is the main river in the source areas of the Yangtze River， which is of great practical significance to study the impact of climate warming on the runoff in the source areas of the Yangtze River.By using the hydrological and meteorological observation data from 1981 to 2015， the influence of climate factors on runoff are analyzed in this paper. The results show that the annual and seasonal mean temperature， the mean maximum and minimum temperatures had increased in the 31 years； the annual and seasonal （except winter） precipitations had increased in the 31 years in the Tuotuo River basin； evaporation had shown a decreasing trend in summer， autumn and the year round， together with an increasing trend in spring and winter. Among the climate factors， precipitation was the most important factor to effect runoff， which had increased in summer and had a very close relationship with runoff in summer. The influence of glacier and snow melt water on runoff was followed by the increase of annual mean minimum temperature， and the influence of evaporation was obviously lower than the former two. |
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| Keywords: | source regions of the Yangtze River global warming Tuotuo River climatic factor runoff |
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