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| 我国过去50a来降水变化趋势及其对水资源的影响(Ⅱ):月系列 | |
| 引用本文： | 叶柏生,李翀,杨大庆,丁永建,沈永平.我国过去50a来降水变化趋势及其对水资源的影响(Ⅱ):月系列[J].冰川冻土,2005,27(1):100-105. |
| 作者姓名： | 叶柏生 李翀 杨大庆 丁永建 沈永平 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院,寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃,兰州,730000 2. 中国水利水电科学研究院,防洪减灾研究所,北京100038 3. Water and Environment Research Center,University of Alaska Fairbank,Fairbank Alaska 99775,USA |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金 , 中国科学院知识创新工程项目 , 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所资助项目 |
| 摘 要： | 应用全国范围内的678个气象站1951-1998年长系列逐月降水资料, 用线性回归方法研究降水量的变化趋势, 同时结合长江、黄河和松花江主要控制水文站同期的径流资料, 研究径流对气候变化的响应. 结果表明: 降水的年内变化表现出较大的区域特性, 最显著的变化特点是秋冬季 (8～12月) 东部地区降水量普遍减少, 1～3月江南地区降水有增加趋势. 气候的上述变化趋势对我国干旱的西北地区有利, 该区河流径流量有明显增加; 另一方面, 夏季降水的增加可能会导致洪水事件的濒发, 与此同时, 降水量的年内不均匀变化, 特别是在 8～12月长时间的降水减少趋势, 导致枯水期径流的减少, 从而加剧秋冬季水资源的供需矛盾. 长江、黄河和松花江主要控制水文站6个站1～4月径流基本上表现为增加趋势, 而6～12月大多表现为减少趋势, 只有黄河上游唐乃亥站6月, 长江下游大通站7月和松花江哈尔滨站8月径流为增加; 另外, 气候变暖使发源于青藏高原的长江(宜昌站3、 4月)和黄河上游(唐乃亥站4～6月)的春季的融雪过程提前, 融雪期径流增加. |
| 关 键 词： | 降水变化 径流变化 洪水灾害 中国 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-0240(2005)01-0100-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年5月9日 |
Variation Trend of Precipitation and Its Impact on Water Resources in China during Last 50 Years (Ⅱ) : Monthly Variation |
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| YE Bai-sheng.Variation Trend of Precipitation and Its Impact on Water Resources in China during Last 50 Years (Ⅱ) : Monthly Variation[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2005,27(1):100-105. | |
| Authors: | YE Bai-sheng |
| Institution: | YE Bai-sheng~ |
| Abstract: | In this paper the changing trends of monthly precipitation over China during the last 50 years are analyzed based on the long-term precipitation data at 678 meteorological stations in China, and the response of river runoff to climate change are also analyzed based on the monthly runoff data at the main hydrological stations of the Yellow River, the Yangtze River and the Songhua River/Amur River by using the linear regression methodology. It is found that the monthly variation of precipitation demonstrates an obvious region-dependence. A generally decreasing trend is mainly in the eastern region of China from August to December, and an increasing trend is in South China from January to March. The contradiction between water supply and demand during fall and winter becomes more and more serious owing to the obvious decrease of river runoff in the dry season caused by the uneven change in precipitation within one year, and especially because of the constant decrease of precipitation from August to December, and the discharge increase due to increase in precipitation in flood period lead to more floods. In addition, the earlier snowmelt process in the spring due to warming climate in the upper Yangtze River and the Yellow River, originated all from the Tibetan Plateau, leads to an increase of runoff in the two rivers in snowmelt period. The long-term trends in discharge at the control stations in the three rivers during 1951_1998 show positive from January to April, but negative from June to December, except for an increasing trend in discharge at Datong station in the lower Yangtze River in July, at Tangnag Station in the upper Yellow River in June and at Harbin Station in the Songhua River in August. This is caused by precipitation change, earlier snowmelt due to global warming, and human activities such as irrigation and regulation of hydropower stations. |
| Keywords: | precipitation variation runoff change flood disaster China |
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