| 青藏高原可可西里盐湖水位上涨趋势及溃决风险分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 刘文惠,谢昌卫,王武,张钰鑫,杨贵前,刘广岳.青藏高原可可西里盐湖水位上涨趋势及溃决风险分析[J].冰川冻土,2019,41(6):1467-1474. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 刘文惠 谢昌卫 王武 张钰鑫 杨贵前 刘广岳 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 中国科学院 西北生态环境资源研究院 冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室 青藏高原冰冻圈观测研究站,甘肃 兰州730000;中国科学院大学,北京 100049;中国科学院 西北生态环境资源研究院 冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室 青藏高原冰冻圈观测研究站,甘肃 兰州730000 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 美丽中国生态文明建设科技工程专项（XDA23060703）；国家自然科学基金（41671068；41401086）；中国科学院"百人计划"项目（51Y551831）；冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室自主课题（SKLCS-ZZ-2019）；甘肃省自然科学基金（1506RJZA290）资助 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 2011年位于可可西里腹地的卓乃湖溃决引起的盐湖水位上涨和面积增大趋势仍在快速发展。遥感资料显示，卓乃湖溃决后，盐湖面积持续增加，从2012年的134.1 km2一直持续增大到2018年的197.5 km2，尤其是2016-2018年增加较快，面积增加了42.0 km2，即平均每年增加14.0 km2。水位监测数据显示，2016年5月20日至2018年11月11日期间，盐湖水位共上升了8.241 m，年平均上升2.747 m。目前盐湖的面积仅比模拟的溢出面积小19.3~21.1 km2；湖泊水位仅比分水岭最低处低4.09 m。按照2016-2018年面积和水位变化趋势，预计盐湖将在未来1~2年内可能发生溢水溃决。研究表明：近年来区域降水增加、卓乃湖溃决后地下水释放、上游湖泊出水口可能存在侵蚀扩大导致湖水继续向下输送等原因是导致盐湖水位持续上涨和面积快速增大的主要原因。利用水库溃坝预测分析模型，对盐湖溢水溃决冲沟形成时洪峰流量预测表明，盐湖溢水溃决时将形成巨大的洪峰流量，洪水将对青藏公路、青藏铁路和兰西拉光缆等造成危害，建议尽快开展盐湖潜在的湖水外溢途径地质条件调查，并设计防治措施。
|
| 关 键 词： | 水位 面积 湖水外溢 溃决风险 可可西里盐湖 青藏高原 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-12-28 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019-01-08 |
Analysis on expansion trend and outburst risk of the Yanhu Lake in Hoh Xil region,Qinghai-Tibet Plateau |
| |
| LIU Wenhui,XIE Changwei,WANG Wu,ZHANG Yuxin,YANG Guiqian,LIU Guangyue.Analysis on expansion trend and outburst risk of the Yanhu Lake in Hoh Xil region,Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2019,41(6):1467-1474. |
| |
| Authors: | LIU Wenhui XIE Changwei WANG Wu ZHANG Yuxin YANG Guiqian LIU Guangyue |
| |
| Institution: | 1. Cryosphere Research Station on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, State Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Sciences, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China |
| |
| Abstract: | In 2011, Zonag Lake, which is located in Hoh Xil region on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, was outburst and the flood flew into Yanhu Lake, which is located nearby the Qinghai-Xizang Highway in the same region. Remote sensing data showed that the area of Yanhu Lake had increased by 42.0 km2 from 2016 to 2018, with an average annual increase of 14.0 km2·a-1. Based on DEM, simulation results indicated that when the lake area reaches 220 km2, water will outflow into Qingshui River and Yanhu Lake will outburst. Field monitoring showed that water level of Yanhu Lake rose by 8.241 m from May 20, 2016 to November 11, 2018, with an average annual increase of 2.747 m·a-1. The current lake area is 19.3~21.1 km2 less than that of the simulated and water level is only about 4.09 m lower than the lowest point of the watershed. According to change trends of area and water level during 2016-2018, Yanhu Lake will overflow in the next 1~2 years. This paper suggest that the increasing precipitation, melt-water from permafrost and the increasing water from Zonag Lake are the main reasons that causing rapid expansion of Yanhu Lake. Simulation results shows the outburst of Yanhu Lake will cause a lots of flood which will threaten the Qinghai-Tibet Highway, Qinghai-Tibet Railway and some other infrastructures in this region. It is necessary to investigate the geological conditions of overflow channels and design preventive measures as soon as possible. |
| |
| Keywords: | lake area lake level overflow outburst risk Yanhu Lake in Hoh Xil region Qinghai-Tibet Plateau |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《冰川冻土》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《冰川冻土》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
