| 山区城市地质灾害与经济发展的关系研究--以兰州市为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 董艳艳,宿星,王国亚.山区城市地质灾害与经济发展的关系研究--以兰州市为例[J].冰川冻土,2015,37(6):1697-1707. |
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| 作者姓名： | 董艳艳 宿星 王国亚 |
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| 作者单位： | 兰州城市学院 马克思主义学院,甘肃 兰州,730070;兰州大学 资源环境学院 西部环境教育部重点实验室，甘肃 兰州730000;甘肃省科学院 地质自然灾害防治研究所，甘肃 兰州730000;甘肃省科学院 地质自然灾害防治研究所,甘肃 兰州,730000 |
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| 基金项目： | 甘肃省软科学研究计划项目(1105ZCRA203)；甘肃省科学院应用研发项目(2013JK-07) |
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| 摘 要： | 兰州市是中国乃至世界上滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害最为严重的山区城市之一，区内地质灾害问题十分突出，防灾减灾任务繁重。地质灾害是影响社会经济发展的因素之一，地质灾害与城市经济的发展相伴共生，相互制约、相互促进。运用灾害统计学、经济学中的哈罗德多马模型、脱钩模型等多种理论方法对2006－2012年兰州市地质灾害与经济发展的关系进行分析。结果表明：兰州市地质灾害总体上对经济发展的影响仍以负面影响为主，正面影响对经济的促进作用相对较弱；近年来地质灾害防灾减灾效果明显，已取得了良好的社会效益、经济效益和环境效益。在区内地质灾害高发和社会经济持续稳定增长共生的条件下，必须以实现“地质灾害的负增长”为当前和今后一段时期防灾减灾的重要任务和目标，最终达到地质灾害的有效防治与社会经济的可持续协调发展。
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| 关 键 词： | 地质灾害 经济发展 哈罗德 多马模型 脱钩关系 兰州市 |
Relation between geological hazards and economic development in mountainous City:Taking Lanzhou City as a case |
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| Abstract: | Lanzhou City is one of the cities with most severe geological hazards,such as,landslides and debris flow,in the country even in the world.Problems of geological hazards are serious very much,and to prevent and mitigate the geological hazards is an onerous task.The hazards are one of the controlling factors to social e-conomy development,which are accompanied with the development of urban economy and are restraining and promoting the development.By using a variety of methods,such as disaster statistics,Harrod-Domar model and decoupling model,the relation between geological hazards and economic development in Lanzhou from 2006 to 2012 is analyzed in this paper.The results show that the overall impact of geological hazards on Lanzhou eco-nomic development is adverse one.The prevention of geological hazards recently has brought obvious effect, achieving good social,economic and environmental benefits.Under frequent geological hazards,in order to keep social economy stable and sustainably growth in the city,it is necessary to effectively mitigate geological hazards and its damages,which is an important task and goal at present and in the future.The brilliant idea is to achieve the effective prevention and control of geological hazards and to reach a harmonious and sustainable social and economic development eventually. |
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| Keywords: | geological hazards economic development Harrod-Domar model decoupling connection Lanzhou City |
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