Assessing the effects of climate change on the hydrological regime of the Limay River basin |
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| Authors: | Rafael Seoane Patricia López |
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| Institution: | 1.National Water Institute (INA),Provincia de Buenos Aires,Argentina;2.National Research Council (CONICET),Buenos Aires,Argentina |
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| Abstract: | The electricity generation capacity in the Limay River basin is approximately 26% of the total electrical power generation
in Argentina. Assessing the potential effects of climate change on the hydrological regime of this basin is an important issue
for water resources management. This study explores the presence of trends in streamflow series, evaluates climate sensitivity
and studies the effects on the flow regime of predicted changes in precipitation in the basin. In order to identify and quantify
changes in observed streamflow series, the Mann–Kendall test, with a modification for autocorrelated data, and an estimator
of the magnitude of the trend are applied. In order to evaluate the sensitivity of streamflow to changes in climate, the concept
of elasticity is used. Precipitation elasticity of streamflow is used to quantify the sensitivity of streamflow to changes
in precipitation and is estimated using a power law model and a linear statistical model in two sub-basins, Aluminé and Nahuel
Huapi. The effects on flow regime of the predicted changes in precipitation under different scenarios are studied. Climatic
results for different scenarios of growth in greenhouse gases from some General Circulation Models are used as inputs into
the proposed models. The analysis identifies decreasing trends in mean and minimum annual flows and in the low flow season.
The estimates of the precipitation elasticity imply that changes in precipitation produce similar changes in streamflow and
the climatic results for different scenarios show that the variations are moderate. |
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| Keywords: | Climate elasticity Climate variability Climate change Hydrological models Statistical analysis Trend analysis |
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