A spatially explicit degree-day model of Rift Valley fever transmission risk in the continental United States |
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| Authors: | Sarah K Konrad Scott N Miller Will K Reeves |
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| Institution: | (1) University Wyoming, Laramie, WY, USA;(2) USDA-ARS-ABADRL, Laramie, WY, USA |
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| Abstract: | A spatially explicit degree-day model was used to evaluate the risk of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) transmission by mosquitoes
to humans and livestock within five target states in the continental United States: California, Minnesota, Nebraska, New York,
and Texas. A geographic information system was used to model potential virus transmission based on a 12-day moving window
assessment of the extrinsic incubation period theorized for RVFV in the United States. Risk of potential virus transmission
in each state was spatially evaluated on a 10-km grid using average historical daily temperature data from 1994 to 2003. The
highest levels of transmission risk occur in California and Texas, with parts of these states at risk of RVFV transmission
for up to 8 months per year. Northern Minnesota, central New York, and most of coastal and high-elevation California are at
low to null risk. Risk of impact to the livestock industry is greatest in California, Texas, and Nebraska. A standard global
climate model was used to evaluate future risk in the year 2030 in Nebraska, and showed an increase of transmission risk days
from approximately 3 to 4 months per year. |
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