| 滑坡预报模型的质量检验研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王朝阳,许强,杨建英.滑坡预报模型的质量检验研究[J].工程地质学报(英文版),2010,18(2):178. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王朝阳 许强 杨建英 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.成都理工大学 地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室 成都 610059 |
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| 摘 要： | 滑坡预报模型主要用来预报滑坡发生的时间,但是如何检验效果是滑坡预报者和决策者面临的一个重要课题。本文通过提出滑坡拟合效果指标(包括后验差指标、模型拟合效率指数和均方根误差)和试预报效果指标(包括试报效果指标和相关系数指标),初步建立了滑坡的预报质量检验模型。依据建立的检验模型,针对链子崖危岩体监测资料分别采用灰色GM(1,1)数学模型、三次指数平滑模型和时间序列模型进行预报。预报结果表明:三种模型中,综合指标GM(1,1)数值最高,建议该滑坡采用GM(1,1)进行预报。通过模型的综合分析评判,不仅分析了模拟效果,而且直接比较了模型间的拟合效果,并为建立模拟效果好的模型提供了充分的依据,从而表明滑坡预报质量检验模型是一种有效、实用的方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 滑坡预报 拟合效果 试预报效果 质量检验 |
RESEARCH ON QUALITY EVALUATION OF LANDSLIDE FORECAST MODEL |
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| Abstract: | A landslide forecast model is mainly used to forecast occurrence time of a landslide. But for model researchers and decision makers,an important issue is the model forecast effect. The author proposed a fitting effect index(including posterior index,model fitting efficiency index and RMS error),an experiment forecast effect index(experiment forecast index and related coefficient index),and an establishment quality testing model of landslide forecast. Using gray GM(1, 1)mathematical model,the three exponential smoothing model and time series model fit and experiment forecast the monitoring data of Lianziya dangerous rock body. Prediction results showed that integrated indicators GM(1, 1)is the highest value among the three kinds models. So the landslide using GM(1, 1)to predict is recommended. Through a comprehensive analysis of the model,the author not only analyzes the simulation results,but also a direct comparison fitting results between the models,and provides the adequate basis for the establishment a good model. These show that landslide prediction model for quality testing is an effective and practical method． |
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