| 基于数值模拟的暴雨泥石流暴发频率计算模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄勋,唐川,周伟.基于数值模拟的暴雨泥石流暴发频率计算模型[J].工程地质学报(英文版),2014,22(6):1271-1278. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄勋 唐川 周伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室成都理工大学 成都 610059 |
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| 基金项目： | 科技部科技基础性工作专项项目，中国地质调查局地质调查项目(12120113009900)资助． |
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| 摘 要： | 在缺失可靠降雨数据的地区,为解决泥石流暴发频率这一现实问题,从泥石流形成机理出发,由泥石流堆积特征反演形成条件,构建了基于数值模拟的泥石流暴发频率计算模型。该模型利用泥石流固体物质量估算模型和流域洪水流量推算模型,确定固体物质量、洪水流量、泥沙体积浓度后,通过FLO-2D流体模型计算得到与实际情况最符合的模拟情景,即可反推出已发泥石流事件的暴发频率。并以7 4石棉县马颈子沟和熊家沟泥石流为例,计算出两处泥石流的暴发频率皆为100年一遇,案例研究表明,该模型具备定量确定泥石流暴发频率的能力,对于泥石流预警预报和防灾减灾具有较强的理论和实践意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 泥石流 暴发频率 水力侵蚀 FLO-2D 石棉县 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-03-12 |
NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF OCCURRENCE FREQUENCY ESTIMA-TION MODEL FOR DEBRIS FLOWS |
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| HUANG Xun,TANG Chuan,ZHOU Wei.NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF OCCURRENCE FREQUENCY ESTIMA-TION MODEL FOR DEBRIS FLOWS[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2014,22(6):1271-1278. |
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| Authors: | HUANG Xun TANG Chuan ZHOU Wei |
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| Institution: | State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059 |
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| Abstract: | This paper deals with the occurrence frequency of debris flow hazard in the areas lack of the accurate rainfall data. It uses numerical simulation and establishes an estimation model of debris flow's occurrence frequency. It is based on the reductionism theory. The model determines the volume of source materials, volume of flood flow and the sediment concentration by volume by employing the source material module and hydrograph module. Then, the interval period of debris flow is confirmed by finding out the most realistic simulation scenario in FLO-2D numerical simulation module. The paper takes Majingzi gully and Xiongjia gully debris flows for instance. They occurred in Shimian county, southwestern China, on 4th July 2013. Their interval periods are all 100 years. It is concluded that this model is able to calculate quantitatively the occurrence frequency of debris flow, and has significant theoretical and practical meaning on early warming and disaster mitigation for catastrophic debris flow. |
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| Keywords: | Debris flow Occurrence frequency Water erosion FLO-2D Shimian county |
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