| 坠落式危岩体稳定性可靠度判定及参数敏感性分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张硕,路军富,裴向军,张博,王双.坠落式危岩体稳定性可靠度判定及参数敏感性分析[J].工程地质学报(英文版),2015,23(3):429-437. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张硕 路军富 裴向军 张博 王双 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室成都理工大学 成都 610059; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目，国家自然科学基金项目，国土资源部公益性行业专项(201211055)资助． |
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| 摘 要： | 汶川地震重灾区,由地震触发的地质灾害数量很多,其中危岩体稳定性判定为灾害治理重点工作。基于可靠度理论,针对坠落式危岩体稳定性极限状态特征,建立其可靠度判定概率极限状态方程,并采用现场量测及概率统计方法,对功能函数中危岩破裂面倾角、危岩等效摩擦角、单位长度危岩体重力、危岩等效黏聚力c、危岩体高度h等基本变量的均值、变异性及分布形态进行确定。基于以上研究成果,建立了坠落式危岩体稳定性可靠度指标计算方法,同时对各基本变量的可靠度敏感性进行研究,研究结果表明:其敏感性由大到小依次为危岩破裂面倾角、危岩等效黏聚力c、危岩的高度h、单位长度危岩体重力、危岩等效摩擦角,研究成果为坠落式危岩体稳定性判定和治理方案设计提供参考依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 坠落式危岩体 可靠度 数理统计 参数敏感性 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-10-05 |
ANALYSIS OF PARAMETER SENSITIVITY AND JUDGEMENT OF STABILITY RELIABILITY FOR FALLING UNSTABLE ROCK |
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| ZHANG Shuo,LU Junfu,PEI Xiangjun,ZHANG Bo,WANG Shuang.ANALYSIS OF PARAMETER SENSITIVITY AND JUDGEMENT OF STABILITY RELIABILITY FOR FALLING UNSTABLE ROCK[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2015,23(3):429-437. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Shuo LU Junfu PEI Xiangjun ZHANG Bo WANG Shuang |
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| Institution: | 1.State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059;2.Sinopec Huabei Petroleum Engineering Company Limited Logging Branch, Zhengzhou 450000 |
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| Abstract: | In the harder-hit earthquake areas such as Wenchuan, the constancy of unstable rock is considered as a key work of the disaster control because there are many kinds of geologic hazards caused by the earthquake. This paper is based on the reliability theory and uses the limit state characteristics of falling unstable rocks. It establishes the equation of constancy judging probability limit state. It also determines the mean value, variability and distribution shape of the unstable rock angle of rupture, the unstable rock angle of equivalent internal friction, weight per unit length, equivalent cohesion, height and other basic variables in the functions by means of field measurement and probability statistics. Based on these studies, the paper develops the calculation method of falling unstable rock stability reliability index. At the same time, it studies the parameter sensitivity of each basic variable. The result shows that the variables in descending order from high to low sensitivity are the unstable rock angle of rupture, the equivalent cohesion, the height, the weight per unit length and the angle of equivalent internal friction. The result offers a reference in judging the constancy of unstable rock and designing of a regulation scheme. |
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| Keywords: | Falling unstable rock Reliability Mathematical statistics Parameter sensitivity |
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