| 工程环境效应引起上海地面沉降预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 崔振东,唐益群,卢辰,栾长青,王兴汉.工程环境效应引起上海地面沉降预测[J].工程地质学报(英文版),2007,15(2):233-236. |
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| 作者姓名： | 崔振东 唐益群 卢辰 栾长青 王兴汉 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.同济大学地下建筑与工程系,上海200092; |
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| 摘 要： | 地面沉降是目前常见的地质灾害之一,其长期的积累给城市带来巨大的经济损失,成为制约城市发展的主要因素。进入20世纪90年代以来,工程环境效应诱发的沉降已经成为上海地面沉降的新趋势,对于外荷载引起的地面沉降过程而言,影响因素较多,既无法用明确的数学关系式表达,又非黑箱那样内部结构、参数和特征一无所知,因此可将灰色预测理论应用于地面沉降的预测。针对监测和观测时间的非等时性,本文应用非等时距灰色理论模型对上海陆家嘴地区某高层建筑的沉降进行预测,并和实际监测沉降量进行了比较;对室内模型试验进行沉降预测,并和实验观测数据以及自适应神经网络系统(ANFIS)预测结果进行了比较。研究发现,对于工程环境效应引起的地面沉降,应用非等时距灰色理论模型进行沉降预测是可行、精确的。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色模型 地面沉降 非等时距 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-9665/2007/15(02)-0233-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-04-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-01-08 |
PREDICTION OF GROUND SETTLEMENT INDUCED DUE TO CHANGES IN ENGINEERING ENVIRONENT IN SHANGHAI |
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| CUI Zhendong,TANG Yiqun,LU Chen,LUAN Changqing,WANG Xinghan.PREDICTION OF GROUND SETTLEMENT INDUCED DUE TO CHANGES IN ENGINEERING ENVIRONENT IN SHANGHAI[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2007,15(2):233-236. |
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| Authors: | CUI Zhendong TANG Yiqun LU Chen LUAN Changqing WANG Xinghan |
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| Institution: | 1.Department of Geotechnical Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092;2.Key Laboratory of Geotechnical Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092 |
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| Abstract: | Ground subsidence is one of the common geological disasters that have often been reported. From 1990s, the engineering environmental changes in Shanghai have become a new cause of inducing ground subsidence. There are many factors affecting the process of ground subsidence induced by external loadings. Such process cannot be explicitly presented with simple mathematical expressions, but it is not totally unknown like a "black box", in terms of the internal structure, parameters, and characteristics. Therefore, the grey theory can be applied to the prediction of the ground subsidence. According to the characteristic of unequal time-interval of monitoring and observation, the unequal time-interval grey model GM (1, 1) is used to predict the subsidence of a certain high-rising building in the Lujiazui area of Shanghai and the predicted result is compared with the monitored data. The subsidence of the indoor model test is also predicted with this theory. The observed data are compared with the predicted data with the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The result indicates that the unequal time-interval GM (1, 1) is reasonable and accurate to predict the ground subsidence induced by engineering works. |
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| Keywords: | Grey theory model Ground subsidence Unequal time-interval Shanghai |
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