| 关于滑坡预测预报方法的思考 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨志法,陈剑.关于滑坡预测预报方法的思考[J].工程地质学报(英文版),2004,12(2):118-123. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨志法 陈剑 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所,北京100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究 ( 973 )项目 (编号 :2 0 0 2CB412 70 1)，中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目 (编号 :KJCX2 -SW -13 4)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 滑坡是世界上十大自然灾害之一 ,容易造成极大的经济损失和人员伤亡 ,对社会危害很大。目前有关它的预测预报的效果还不甚理想。滑坡灾害的诱发因素包括自然因素和人为因素 ,而人为因素主要与人类工程活动有关 ;在一定的地质地形条件下 ,自然诱发因素则主要是降雨 ,特别是暴雨。通过对滑坡预测预报方法的哲学思考 ,作者认为今后应该加强由天预报地 ,即以降雨预报结果来推测区域滑坡发生的概率方法的研究。将该方法与单点滑坡的监测预报法结合起来 ,可望进一步提高滑坡预测预报的水平
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| 关 键 词： | 滑坡 降雨 预测预报 哲学思考 |
| 收稿时间： | 2003-09-29 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年9月29日 |
THOUGHTS ON THE PREDICTION OR FORECAST OF LANDSLIDES |
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| YANG Zhifa,CHEN Jian.THOUGHTS ON THE PREDICTION OR FORECAST OF LANDSLIDES[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2004,12(2):118-123. |
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| Authors: | YANG Zhifa CHEN Jian |
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| Institution: | Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 |
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| Abstract: | As one of the top ten natural disasters, landslides have great impacts on the environment and on societies, and often cause vast economic losses and casualties. Many methods have been developed for the prediction or forecast of landslides; however, results are not very satisfactory. Two kinds of triggering factors are currently considered in prediction or forecast of landslides: natural and man-made. Under given geological and geomorphic conditions, rainfall becomes a key natural factor. Based on philosophical thoughts on the prediction or forecast of landslides, the authors suggest that the method of weather-slope forecast, in which probability of occurrence of landslides was calculated based on the forecast of rainfall, be enhanced,. As expected, by integrating the weather slope forecast with the monitoring of landslides, the resulting method could improve the accuracy of prediction or forecast of landslides. |
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| Keywords: | Landslides Rainfall Prediction or forecast Philosophic thoughts |
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