| 中国天然气资源安全态势分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 姚震,黎江峰,吴巧生,周娜.中国天然气资源安全态势分析[J].地质通报,2018,37(7):1374-1378. |
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| 作者姓名： | 姚震 黎江峰 吴巧生 周娜 |
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| 作者单位： | 中央财经大学财经研究院;中国地质调查局发展研究中心;中国地质大学(武汉)资源环境经济研究中心 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会基金重点项目《页岩气和煤层气开发利用的能源安全效益、环境效益及其他社会效益评价》（批准号：13AZD078） |
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| 摘 要： | 通过文献梳理建立中国天然气资源安全评价指标体系,运用聚类分析和灰色关联分析优化了已构建的评价指标体系。在此基础上采用熵值法衡量出中国天然气安全指数,通过设立高、基准和低3种情景方案,运用PSO-SVM模型对2020年中国天然气安全态势进行了分析。结果表明:(1)在评价期内,中国天然气处于不安全程度,天然气安全指数呈现先波动下降再缓慢上升的趋势;(2)不同的天然气利用政策及与之配套的能源政策能够显著影响中国天然气安全发展。建议中国政府加强对天然气等能源政策的干预力度,以便更好地发挥上述政策和措施在提高天然气能源利用效率、改善能源结构和保证国民经济平稳运行方面的积极作用。
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| 关 键 词： | 天然气资源 安全态势 情景模拟 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017/9/20 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2017/12/5 0:00:00 |
Analysis on the safety situation of natural gas resources in China |
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| YAO Zhen,LI Jiangfeng,WU Qiaosheng and ZHOU Na.Analysis on the safety situation of natural gas resources in China[J].Geologcal Bulletin OF China,2018,37(7):1374-1378. |
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| Authors: | YAO Zhen LI Jiangfeng WU Qiaosheng and ZHOU Na |
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| Institution: | Institute of Finance and Economics Research, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100081, China;Development and Research Center, China Geological Survey, Beijing 100037, China,Resources and Environmental Economics Research Center, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, Hubei, China,Resources and Environmental Economics Research Center, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, Hubei, China and Resources and Environmental Economics Research Center, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, Hubei, China |
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| Abstract: | We establish the safety evaluation index system of natural gas resource in China through literature review, using cluster analysis and grey correlation analysis to optimize the established evaluation index system, using entropy method to measure China''s natural gas safety index. The PSO-SVM model was used to analyze the natural gas security situation in 2020 by setting up three scenarios of high, benchmark and low scenario. The results show that:(1) China''s natural gas is in an unsafe degree, and the natural gas safety index shows the trend of the first fluctuation and then the slow rise in the period of evaluation; (2) different natural gas utilization policies and supporting energy policies can significantly affect the safe development of natural gas in China. This paper suggests that China government should strengthen its intervention in energy policies such as natural gas, in order to better use the above policies and measures to improve the efficiency of natural gas energy utilization, improve the energy structure and ensure the smooth operation of the national economy. |
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| Keywords: | natural gas resources security situation scenario simulation |
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