|
|||||
|
|
| 渤海湾西岸风暴潮:叠加地质因素的新探讨 | |
| 引用本文： | 王宏,商志文,王福等.渤海湾西岸风暴潮:叠加地质因素的新探讨[J].地质通报,2010,29(5):641-649. |
| 作者姓名： | 王宏 商志文 王福等 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国地质调查局天津地质调查中心,天津,300170 2. 中国地质调查局天津地质调查中心,天津,300170;中国地质科学院研究生院,北京,100037 3. 中国地质调查局天津地质调查中心,天津,300170;中国地质大学海洋学院,北京,100083 4. 中国地质调查局天津地质调查中心,天津,300170;天津科技大学海洋科学与工程学院,天津,300457 5. 中国地质调查局天津地质调查中心,天津,300170;中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所,北京,100037 6. 中国地质调查局天津地质调查中心,天津,300170;吉林大学地球科学学院,吉林,长春,130061 |
| 基金项目： | 中国地质调查局国土资源大调查项目，国家908专项 |
| 摘 要： | 通过对渤海湾西岸1895年以来11次风暴潮高水位的厘定,证实并确定了50年、100年、200年直至10000年一遇的风暴潮高水位值。定量评估了风增水与波浪对风暴潮高水位的贡献。进一步从地学角度讨论了21世纪10年间隔的海面上升量、地面下沉与围海造陆共同作用、海面上升引发的净增水效应及河口增水效应。根据上述各类参数,预测了至2050年的10年间隔、50~10000年不同重现期的极端水位,并讨论了地面下沉对风暴潮测量准确性的影响。认为当前的防潮堤(海垱)高度可抵御50~100年一遇的风暴潮的侵袭,但据所讨论的综合因素的影响,建议2020年防潮堤的高度应达到+4.8m,2030年达到+5.1m(85高程)。 |
| 关 键 词： | 渤海湾西岸 风暴潮高水位 趋势预测 |
on the muddy coast, western Bohai Bay, China |
|
| WANG Hong,SHANG Zhi-wen,WANG Fu,et al..on the muddy coast, western Bohai Bay, China[J].Geologcal Bulletin OF China,2010,29(5):641-649. | |
| Authors: | WANG Hong SHANG Zhi-wen WANG Fu |
| Institution: | 1. Tianjin Centre, China Geological Survey, Tianjin 300170, China; 2. School of Graduates, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100037, China; 3. School of Marine Sciences, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China; 4. School of Marine Science and Engineering, Tianjin University of Science and Technology, Tianjin 300457, China; 5. Institute of Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100037, China; 6. School of Geosciences, Jilin University, Changchun 130061, Jilin, China |
| Abstract: | Based on collation of the flooding levels of the 11 storm surges since 1895 in the west coast of Bohai Bay, this paper verified and redefined the flooding levels with a probability of exceedance of 1 in 50, 100, 200... to 10000 years. Contributions of both wind set-up and wave to high water levels are quantitatively estimated as 50cm, respectively. Moreover, the various factors, including sealevel rise (starting from 2009 for every 10-yr-interval in 2009-2100: 3-31cm), land subsidence coincident with reclamation, net increase of flooding level stimulated by the sealevel rise (2020-2050: 7.5-30cm) and the mouth-channel effect (10cm) were discussed. Based on these parameters, the extreme flooding levels under probability of exceedance of 1 in 50 to 10000 years, respectively, were predicted until 2050 for every 10-yr-interval, and the leveling-correction affected by the subsidence was also discussed. We indicate the height of the existing seadike is capable to defense the storm surges of 1 in 50 to 100 years. However, based on the comprehensive factors discussed in this paper, it is suggested that the seadike should be reached to +4.8m in 2020 and +5.1m in 2030, respectively (both the State 85 Datum). |
| Keywords: | the west coast of Bohai Bay flooding levels of storm surges trend prediction |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |
| 点击此处可从《地质通报》浏览原始摘要信息 | |
| 点击此处可从《地质通报》下载免费的PDF全文 | |