| 我国重大气候灾害的形成机理和预测理论研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄荣辉.我国重大气候灾害的形成机理和预测理论研究[J].地球科学进展,2006,21(6):564-575. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄荣辉 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院大气物理研究所季风系统研究中心,北京,100080 |
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| 摘 要： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划项目“我国重大气候灾害的形成机理和预测理论的研究”把20世纪80年代以来我国所发生的旱涝重大气候灾害作为项目研究的切入点，从气候系统各圈层的变化及其相互作用，特别是从气候系统中海—陆—气各子系统的变化和相互作用及其对我国重大气候灾害的影响机理入手，对我国重大气候灾害进行了深入分析研究，提出了与我国旱涝重大气候灾害形成机理有关的“东亚气候系统”新理论，指出这个系统的时空变化特征及其对我国旱涝等重大气候灾害发生的重要作用；从东亚季风—西太平洋暖池—ENSO循环相互作用及机理的研究，提出了热带西太平洋对热带太平洋ENSO循环的热力和动力作用以及与亚洲季风的相互作用过程，指出了ENSO循环的不同阶段对于东亚季风和我国气候异常的不同影响及其机理；提出了高原热力适应理论，应用此理论揭示了高原热力变化对南亚高压东西振荡影响的物理过程。在上述理论研究的基础上提出了ENSO循环的数值预测模式和我国跨季度和年度气候异常的数值预测系统，研制了新一代气候耦合数值模型中的大气环流数值模式。通过这两个预测系统的研制使我国对ENSO事件预测水平有了较大提高，并成功地预测了我国1998—2003年夏季所发生的严重旱涝气候灾害。此外，成功地进行了我国西北干旱区陆—气相互作用观测试验，获取了许多有关我国典型干旱区陆—气相互作用有价值的科学数据，并得到许多原创性的科学结果，为开发大西北提供了可靠的气候环境资料。本项目的完成不仅为今后开展我国重大气候灾害的发生规律、成因与预测研究奠定了坚实的理论和数值模型基础，而且对于国家旱涝气候灾害预测水平的提高，减轻气候灾害造成的经济损失具有重要的经济和社会效益。
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| 关 键 词： | 重大气候灾害 形成机理 预测理论 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-8166（2006）06-0564-12 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-02-15 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-02-21 |
Progresses in Research on the Formation Mechanism and Prediction Theory of Severe Climatic Disasters in China |
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| HUANG Rong-hui.Progresses in Research on the Formation Mechanism and Prediction Theory of Severe Climatic Disasters in China[J].Advance in Earth Sciences,2006,21(6):564-575. |
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| Authors: | HUANG Rong-hui |
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| Institution: | Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080,China |
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| Abstract: | Due to the severity of climatic disasters in China, the project of Research on the Formation Mechanism and Prediction Theory of Severe Climatic Disasters in China was implemented as one among the first batch of projects to gain support from the National Key Program for Developing Basic Sciences. Researches of this project started the study by examining the occurrences of severe climatic disasters such as droughts and floods in China from the 1980s, and the formation mechanism of these severe disasters was analyzed from the variations and interactions among various spheres of climate system, especially from the affecting mechanism of variabilities and interactions among the sea, the land and the atmosphere subsystem of climate system on severe climatic disasters in China, and then the new theory of the East Asian climate system associated with the formation mechanism of severe climatic disasters in China was proposed. Moreover, this project also achieved a new development on the mechanism of ENSO cycle in the tropical Pacific and the thermal effect of the Tibetan Plateau on climate variability. On the basis of these theoretical studies, a numerical prediction model of ENSO cycle and a numerical prediction system of extra-seasonal and annual climate anomalies in China were proposed respectively, and a general atmospheric circulation model to be included in a new-generation numerical climate model designed. Through the design of these two prediction systems, the prediction level of ENSO events greatly increased, and the severe drought and flood disasters occurred in the summers of 1998-2003 were successfully predicted in China. In addition, the project successfully carried out the “The Observational Experiment on the Air-Land Interaction in the Arid Regions of Northwest China”, which has provided much valuable scientific data related to the air-land interaction in the typical arid regions of Northwest China and has obtained much ordiginal and novel scientific achievements. These have provided credible scientific data of climate and environment for the strategy of opening up Northwest China. These achievements not only have established a solid foundation of theory and numerical model for proceeding the study on occurring regularity, cause and prediction of severe climatic disasters in China, but also have important economic and social benefits for increasing national prediction level of severe climatic disasters in China and mitigating economic loss due to these climatic disasters. |
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| Keywords: | Sever climatic disaster Formation mechanism Prediction theory |
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