| 从风险认知到风险数量化分类 |
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| 引用本文： | 李宁,张鹏,胡爱军,刘雪琴,崔维佳,孟志强,史培军.从风险认知到风险数量化分类[J].地球科学进展,2009,24(1):42-48. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李宁 张鹏 胡爱军 刘雪琴 崔维佳 孟志强 史培军 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室;环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室;北京师范大学,北京,100875
2. 民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室;环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室;北京师范大学,北京,100875;湖南省气象局,湖南,长沙,410007 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，国家科技支撑讣划项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 伴随着社会经济和科技的发展，对风险问题的研究成为风险管理的重要一环，风险分类是进行风险保险、风险管理以及建立风险信息数据库的基础。拟从风险认知的角度，通过人们目前比较关注的41种风险构建了风险0 1判断矩阵，用Hayashi数量化理论III，通过Matlab软件，对构建的0 1风险矩阵进行判断计算，得到风险分类图。通过验证，用Hayashi数量化理论Ⅲ对风险的聚类可以取得很好的类别区分效果，类内的风险种类组合与现有的几种政策管理分类框架中的风险类别组合吻合;该方法为风险的数值分类提供了新的思路。
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| 关 键 词： | Hayashi数量化理论Ⅲ 风险分类 风险认知 风险管理 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008-06-23 |
| 修稿时间： | 2008-12-15 |
Risk Perception Quantification with the Application to Analysis of Risk Classification |
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| LI Ning,ZHANG Peng,HU Aijun,LIU Xueqin,CUI Weijia,MENG Zhiqiang,SHI Peijun.Risk Perception Quantification with the Application to Analysis of Risk Classification[J].Advance in Earth Sciences,2009,24(1):42-48. |
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| Authors: | LI Ning ZHANG Peng HU Aijun LIU Xueqin CUI Weijia MENG Zhiqiang SHI Peijun |
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| Institution: | 1.State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education; Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of China; Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875, China;
2. Meteorological Bureau of Hunan Province, Changsha 410007, China |
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| Abstract: | With the development of societal economy and technology,a lot of uncertainty risks become one of the important factors which disturb the human life.Thus,the study of risk problem has become an important part of the risk management.Risk classification is the basis of risk insurance,risk management,and the establishment of risk information database.The objective of this paper is to classify the risk affecting human life from the respective of risk perception.It builds the 0-1 judgment matrix by means of analy... |
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| Keywords: | Hayashi′ qualification theory III Risk classification Risk perception Risk management |
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