| 天津滨海新区地面沉降预测方法研究 |
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| 作者姓名： | 张风霜 薄万举 陈聚忠 宋雯 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地震局第一监测中心,天津300180 |
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| 基金项目： | 天津市自然科学基金，中国地震局2010年度震情跟踪合同制定向工作任务和第一监测中心青年人才培养基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用1985～2008年天津地面沉降监测资料,以水准监测点为基本研究对象,在分析其时间沉降的变化动态基础上,采用分段权函数线性模型提取沉降信息并进行外推预测,展示了天津滨海新区地面沉降现状,编绘了2008年天津滨海新区地面沉降年度沉降分布图和2008～2013年间地面沉降总量的预测分布图研究成果可供政府及有关部门制定和实施控沉管理决策参考,同时对存在类似问题的区域也有一定的参考价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 天津滨海新区 地面沉降 模型拟合 外推预测 |
Forecast Method Research of the Ground Subsidence in Tianjin Binhai New Area |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Feng-Shuang BO Wan-Ju CHEN Ju-Zhong SONG Wen |
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| Institution: | (First Crust Deformation Monitoring and Application Center,CEA,Tianjin 300180,China) |
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| Abstract: | With the use of the 1985~2008 monitoring data of ground subsidence in Tianjin,and by thoroughly analyzing the leveling bench marks and their subsidence movements in time,the paper uses the piecewise weight function linear model to extract subsidence information and extend forecast and then study the current status of ground subsidence in the whole area.On the basis of the current status and its development tendency,the distributions of ground subsidence isolines in Tianjin Binhai New Area of 2008 and 2008~2013 are given,which can be references for the governmental countermeasures and for some other similar areas. |
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| Keywords: | Tianjin Binhai New Area ground subsidence model fitting extend forecast |
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