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| 新世纪上海地区相对海平面变化影响因素及预测方法 | |
| 作者姓名： | 王冬梅 程和琴 张先林 阮仁良 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 华东师范大学河口海岸学国家重点实验室,上海,200062 2. 上海市规划和国土资源管理局,上海,200003 3. 上海市水务局,上海,200050 |
| 基金项目： | 上海市科学技术委员会科研课题，国家科技部重点实验室专项课题项目 |
| 摘 要： | 针对传统相对海平面变化分析方法均将理论海平面变化和地面沉降进行的叠加分析,本文讨论和分析了近20年来全球理论海平面上升速率加快背景下的区域海平面变化速率,利用灰色线性回归组合模型预测上海地区海平面变化趋势。考虑了上海地面沉降发展的新特点,以及长江流域来沙显著减少和河口大型工程建设对上海地区相对海平面变化的影响。在流域来沙量显著减少但来水量变化不大情况下,流域大坝的坝下冲刷使得河槽刷深,河口水位降低,同时长江口深水航道整治工程和促淤围垦工程束狭入海口,使得潮位站水位发生变化,两者的综合效应是目前研究长江口相对海平面变化时必须考虑的重要因素。 |
| 关 键 词： | 相对海平面变化 地面沉降 三峡工程 深水航道整治工程 促淤围垦工程 长江口 灰色线性回归组合模型 |
Impact of Multifactors and Prediction Technique of Relative Sea Level in Shanghai |
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| Authors: | WANG Dong-Mei CHENG He-Qin ZHANG Xian-Lin RUAN Ren-Liang |
| Institution: | WANG Dong-Mei1,CHENG He-Qin1,ZHANG Xian-Lin2,RUAN Ren-Liang3(1.State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China,2.Shanghai Municipal Planning and Land Resources Administration,Shanghai 200003,3.Shanghai Water Authority,Shanghai 200050,China) |
| Abstract: | Relative sea level change reported before has been acquired by the global theoretical sea level rise and local land subsidence.New components consist of the relative sea level change by the strong human interventions in the watershed and estuary of Yangtze River for the recent 20 years in Shanghai are concerned in the present paper.These new components are the regional sea level change with an increasing global theoretical sea-level rise,a decreasing land subsidence controlled by the densely high building and subway,and the water level lowering due to the erosion of channel riverbed with the sediment discharge decrease in the Yangtze River estuary caused by large-scale hydraulic engineering as Three-Gauge Dam in the watershed,and then water level change at gauge stations with the width narrowing of estuarine channels by the engineering as land reclamation and deep navigation channel regulation,fresh water reservoir.Nevertheless,impact of these new parameters should be estimated and predicted and then the combined regional relative sea level change could be predicted by a linear regression analysis integrated with grey system proposed by the authors in the Yangtze River estuary in the 21st century. |
| Keywords: | changes in RSL land subsidence Sanxia water conservancy project deepwater channel regulation projection the land reclamation projection the Yangtze River Estuary grey model with linear regression analysis |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |