| 上海市南部地区地震危险性分析 |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱子沾 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海市环境地质站 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文通过对工作区内地震地质、地球物理场特征研究,确定了场区周围九个潜在震源区,分析计算得出各潜在震源区的地震活动性参数。用概率论的方法,以洪华生等人提出的《断层—破裂模型》计算得到上海市南部地区地震烈度年超越概率以及10、20、50、100、200、300、500年内场区的地震影响烈度超越概率,并对这一地区的地震危险性进行了估计。
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| 关 键 词： | 地震 上海 危险性 |
ANALYSIS OF THE SEISMIC DANGER IN THE SOUTH OF SHANGHAI |
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| Authors: | Zhu Zizhan |
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| Institution: | Shanghai Station of Environment Geology |
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| Abstract: | The paper establishes nine potential seismic source regions in the south Shanghai with characteristics of seismology and geophysics. The seismic active parmeters are obtained after analysis and calculation for each potential seismic source region. The overprobability of seismic intensity per year and over-probability of seismic influence intensity in 10, 20, 50, 100, 200, 300 and 500 years are calculated in the south Shanghai with the Probability as well as the Hong's 'Fault-Fracture Model' to estimate the seismic danger. |
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| Keywords: | Potential seismic source region seimic active parameter ove-probability of seismic intensity seismic basic intensity |
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