Coastal marsh response to historical and future sea-level acceleration |
| |
| Authors: | Matthew Kirwan Stijn Temmerman |
| |
| Institution: | 1. University of Antwerp, Ecosystem Management Research Group, Universiteitsplein 1-c, B-2610 Antwerp, Belgium;2. Göttingen University, Institute of Geography, Cartography, GIS and Remote Sensing Section, Goldschmidtstraße 5, 37077 Göttingen, Germany;3. Flanders Hydraulics Research (FHR), Berchemlei 115, 2140 Antwerp, Belgium;4. Research Institute for Nature and Forest (INBO), Havenlaan 88, 1000 Brussels, Belgium;5. Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ), Korringaweg 7, 4401 NT Yerseke, Netherlands;1. University of Liverpool, Department of Geography and Planning, 74 Bedford St S., Liverpool, UK;2. Liverpool John Moores University, Department of Civil Engineering, Peter Jost Enterprise Centre, Byrom Street, Liverpool L3 3AF, UK;3. U.S. Geological Survey, Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center, MA 02543, USA;4. Cambridge Coastal Research Unit (CCRU), Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Downing Place, Cambridge CB2 3EN, United Kingdom;5. Ecosystem Management Research Group, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Wilrijk, Belgium;1. Narragansett Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve, 55 South Reserve Dr., Prudence Island, RI 02872, USA;2. Elkhorn Slough National Estuarine Research Reserve, 1700 Elkhorn Road, Watsonville, CA 95076, USA;3. North Inlet-Winyah Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve, PO Box 1630, Georgetown, SC 29442, USA;4. Tijuana River National Estuarine Research Reserve, 301 Caspian Way, Imperial Beach, CA 91932, USA;5. Jug Bay Wetlands Sanctuary, 1361 Wrighton Road, Lothian, MD 20711, USA;6. Hudson River National Estuarine Research Reserve, 256 Norrie Point Way, P.O. Box 315, Staatsburg, NY 12580, USA;7. San Francisco Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve, 3152 Paradise Drive, Tiburon, CA 94920, USA;8. South Slough National Estuarine Research Reserve, P.O. Box 5417, Charleston, OR 97420, USA;9. Delaware National Estuarine Research Reserve, 818 Kitts Hummock Road, Dover, DE 19901, USA;10. Waquoit Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve, 131 Waquoit Hwy, Woods Hole, MA 02536, USA;11. North Carolina National Estuarine Research Reserve, 101 Pivers Island Rd., Beaufort, NC 28516, USA;12. ACE Basin National Estuarine Research Reserve, 217 Fort Johnson Road, Charleston, SC 29412, USA;13. Padilla Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve, 10441 Bayview-Edison Road, Mount Vernon, WA 98273, USA;14. Grand Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve, Mississippi Department of Marine Resources, 6005 Bayou Heron Road, Moss Point, MS 39562, USA;15. Great Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve, 89 Depot Rd, Greenland, NH 03840, USA;p. Chesapeake Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve of Virginia at the Virginia Institute of Marine Sciences, 1375 Greate Road., Gloucester Point, VA 23062, USA |
| |
| Abstract: | We consider the response of marshland to accelerations in the rate of sea-level rise by utilizing two previously described numerical models of marsh elevation. In a model designed for the Scheldt Estuary (Belgium–SW Netherlands), a feedback between inundation depth and suspended sediment concentrations allows marshes to quickly adjust their elevation to a change in sea-level rise rate. In a model designed for the North Inlet Estuary (South Carolina), a feedback between inundation and vegetation growth allows similar adjustment. Although the models differ in their approach, we find that they predict surprisingly similar responses to sea-level change. Marsh elevations adjust to a step change in the rate of sea-level rise in about 100 years. In the case of a continuous acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise, modeled accretion rates lag behind sea-level rise rates by about 20 years, and never obtain equilibrium. Regardless of the style of acceleration, the models predict approximately 6–14 cm of marsh submergence in response to historical sea-level acceleration, and 3–4 cm of marsh submergence in response to a projected scenario of sea-level rise over the next century. While marshes already low in the tidal frame would be susceptible to these depth changes, our modeling results suggest that factors other than historical sea-level acceleration are more important for observations of degradation in most marshes today. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录！ |
|
