The determination of statistical and deterministic hydrological landslide-triggering thresholds |
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| Authors: | Mark T J Terlien |
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| Institution: | (1) International Institute for Aerospace Survey and Earth Sciences (ITC), Kanaalweg 3, 2628 EB Delft, The Netherlands, NL |
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| Abstract: | Hydrological landslide-triggering thresholds separate combinations of daily and antecedent rainfall or of rainfall intensity
and duration that triggered landslides from those that failed to trigger landslides. They are required for the development
of landslide early warning systems. When a large data set on rainfall and landslide occurrence is available, hydrological
triggering thresholds are determined in a statistical way. When the data on landslide occurrence is limited, deterministic
models have to be used. For shallow landslides directly triggered by percolating rainfall, triggering thresholds can be established
by means of one-dimensional hydrological models linked to the infinite slope model. In the case of relatively deep landslides
located in topographic hollows and triggered by a slow accumulation of water at the soil-bedrock contact, simple correlations
between landslide occurrence and rainfall can no longer be established. Therefore real-time failure probabilities have to
be determined using hydrological catchment models in combination with the infinite slope model.
Received: 15 October 1997 · Accepted: 25 June 1997 |
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| Keywords: | Landslides Rainfall Antecedent soil moisture Hydrological modelling |
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