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西部高山冰川阻塞湖引起的突发性洪水灾害研究
引用本文:程功弼.西部高山冰川阻塞湖引起的突发性洪水灾害研究[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2005,16(2):19-23.
作者姓名:程功弼
作者单位:南京大学城市与资源学系,江苏,南京,210093
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(40271016)
摘    要:我国西部地区经常发生洪水灾害。此为当地干旱区自然环境状况的特点。作者经过实地考察中天山地区与喀喇昆仑山地区,认为这是由于冰川阻塞湖引起的突发性洪水灾害,并且获得关于洪水的第一手资料。认为该洪水类型具有暴发突然、变化快、历时短暂、发生地受冰川环境影响大等特点。初步判定关于冰川阻塞湖突发性洪水的排水机制可能。通过对叶尔羌河、昆马力克河及四棵树河的详细研究,利用混沌及分形等数理方法,计算出相关特性定量指标。发现可预报洪水序列与阻塞湖库容量有正相关关系。结合整个西部地区的冰川分布进行整合分析.发现冰川阻塞湖引起突发性洪水的发生规律。结合分析阿尔泰山、祁连山及西藏地区地理环境特点,认为塔里木盆地周边地区是冰湖洪水的突发区。加强对冰川阻塞湖洪水的研究,希望对未来的西部大开发,尤其是基础设施建设和保护起到辅助指导作用。

关 键 词:中国西部  冰川阻塞湖  突发性洪水灾害  混沌方法  分形方法
文章编号:1003-8035(2005)02-019-05
修稿时间:2004年6月23日

Integrative research on outburst flood disaster induced by glacier dammed lake in Alpine area of Western China
CHENG Gong-bi.Integrative research on outburst flood disaster induced by glacier dammed lake in Alpine area of Western China[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2005,16(2):19-23.
Authors:CHENG Gong-bi
Abstract:There are many flood disasters in Western China.Their happening depend on the natural environment of local arid area.After doing fieldwork in Tianshan Mountain and Kunlun Mountain,the author finds that outburst flood disaster was induced by glacier-dammed lake,and gets first-hand data about flood.This type of flood has some special characters such as quick outburst,swift change,short delay and affected easily by glacier.The possibility of drainage mechanism has been concluded.After detailed research on three typical rivers:Ye'erqiang River,Kunmalike River and Sikeshu Rive,the author uses chaos and fractal theory to calculate quantificational index of correlative characters,and finds that there are some positive correlation between sequence of flood forecast and capability of glacier dammed lake.By analyzing the distribution of the glacier of western China,the author finds the rules of hte glacier-dammed lake outburst flood.Considering geographical environment of A'ertai Mountain,Qilian Mountain and Tibet,the circumjacent area of Talimu Basin is considered as a place that the glacier-dammed laker outburst flood often occurred.It is helpful for the future western development,by studying this kind of flood,especially for the basal establishment construction and protection.
Keywords:western China  glacier-dammed lake  outburst flood disaster  chaos method  fractal mechod
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