| 基于贡献率模型的管道河(沟)道水毁灾害危险性评价指标体系 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈国辉,吴森,潘国耀.基于贡献率模型的管道河(沟)道水毁灾害危险性评价指标体系[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2019,30(4):123-128. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈国辉 吴森 潘国耀 |
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| 作者单位： | 四川省地质工程勘察院 |
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| 摘 要： | 西南管道公司辖区内管道沿线地质环境条件复杂,地质灾害频发,由此导致的事故时有发生。以西南管道沿线119处典型河(沟)道水毁灾害为例,通过灾害影响因素分析,初步确定评价指标体系备选指标因子,利用贡献率模型,通过样本统计、分析,完成河(沟)道水毁灾害影响因子的因子间与因子内部敏感性分析。按照敏感性高低将影响因子划分为高敏感、中等敏感、低敏感三个级别。最终保留中等、高敏感因子中可以通过野外调查手段获取的洪水位变幅、岩土类型、土体状态、岸坡类型、河沟纵坡降、河沟道变形、河岸坡度等7个因子,作为油气管道河(沟)道水毁灾害危险性评价指标。
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| 关 键 词： | 贡献率模型 河(沟)道水毁 影响因子 敏感性 指标体系 |
Assessment index system of washout hazard of pipeline across-river based on contribution model |
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| CHEN Guohui,WU Sen,PAN Guoyao.Assessment index system of washout hazard of pipeline across-river based on contribution model[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2019,30(4):123-128. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Guohui WU Sen PAN Guoyao |
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| Institution: | (Sichuan Institute of Geological Engineering Investigation Chengdu,Sichuan610072,China) |
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| Abstract: | The geological condition of Petro China Southwest Pipeline crossing area is so complicated that geological disasters occurred frequently,and the pipeline accident caused by geological disasters often happened.Taking 119 typical across-river washout disasters along oil and gas pipelines as example,assessment index system alternative indexes was selected preliminarily through the analysis of disaster factors.Through the sample statistics and analysis,the intra-factor and inter-factor sensitivity analysis were completed with the contribution model.According to the sensitivity value,the factors were divided into three grades:high sensitive factors,medium sensitive factors,low sensitive factors.After that,factors of flood level luffing、flow velocity、formation lithology、soil states、bank form、river longitudinal grade、across-river deformation、bank slope,which can be obtained by field investigation and belong to high and medium sensitive factors,were reserved to build the assessment index system of pipeline across-river washout hazard. |
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| Keywords: | contribution model across-river washout influence factors sensitivity index system |
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