| 基于尖点突变模型与D-S证据融合理念的地下矿山岩体失稳预警方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 罗周全,李艳艳,秦亚光,文磊.基于尖点突变模型与D-S证据融合理念的地下矿山岩体失稳预警方法[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2020,31(5):60. |
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| 作者姓名： | 罗周全 李艳艳 秦亚光 文磊 |
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| 作者单位： | 中南大学资源与安全工程学院, 湖南 长沙 410083 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家"十三五"重点研发计划课题:深部大矿段多采区时空协同连续采矿理论与技术（2017YFC0602901） |
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| 摘 要： | 地下矿山岩体失稳预警一直是矿山灾害防治研究的重要课题。为了提高岩体失稳预警的准确性和可靠性，本文提出一种基于尖点突变理论和D-S证据融合理论的综合性预警方法。首先通过建立尖点突变分析模型和D-S证据融合模型得到两种独立预警判据。然后借助风险矩阵融合两种独立预警判据形成综合性预警判据。最后利用矿山实测的微震数据分别对三种预警判据的预警效果进行检验。结果表明:尖点突变模型对岩体失稳的预警效果较差；D-S证据融合模型的鲁棒性较差；综合性预警判据的预警结果与工程实际高度吻合且鲁棒性较好，预测准确性和可靠度明显提高。
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| 关 键 词： | 尖点突变 D-S证据融合 岩体失稳 综合预警 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-12-23 |
A method developed for early warning of under ground rock mass instability in mining area based on Cusp catastrophe model and D-S fusion evidence theory |
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| Institution: | School of Resources and Safety Engineering, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan 410083, China |
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| Abstract: | Early warning of rock mass failure has always been an important research subject of mining disaster prevention. To improve the accuracy and reliability of early warning on rock mass failure, a comprehensive early warning method is proposed in this paper based on the Cusp catastrophe theory and D-S fusion evidence theory.Firstly, two independent early warning criteria were obtained by establishing the Cusp catastrophe analysis model and the D-S fusion evidence model. The following step was to form a comprehensive early warning criterion with two former criteria on the basis of risk matrix. Finally, the warning effect of the three warning methods mentioned above was tested by actual microseism data in the mine.The results show that:the cusp catastrophe model is less effective for early warning of rock mass failure and the D-S fusion evidence model is less robust, while the comprehensive early warning model has a higher accuracy and a better robustness.The accuracy and reliability of the early warning for rock mass failure is significantly improved. |
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