| 灰色系统与神经网络组合模型在地下水水位预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 冯羽,马凤山,魏爱华,赵海军,郭捷.灰色系统与神经网络组合模型在地下水水位预测中的应用[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2011,22(3):119-124. |
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| 作者姓名： | 冯羽 马凤山 魏爱华 赵海军 郭捷 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所工程地质力学重点实验室,北京,100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)课题，中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 灰色GM(1,1)模型与人工BP神经网络对于预测非线性数列变化趋势都具有很好的适用性,但同其他预测方法一样也存在各自的局限性。本文采用灰色GM(1,1)模型与人工神经网络相结合的方法,对GM(1,1)模型预测结果进行了修正。以收集到的某地区1996～2006年的地下水水位埋深数据为算例,计算结果表明,经人工神经网络修正后的灰色系统的预测值比原预测值的预测精度有了很大提高。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统GM(1 1) 人工神经网络 地下水水位 预测 |
The prediction of groundwater level based on the combined model of grey system and neural network |
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| FENG Yu,MA Feng-shan,WEI Ai-hua,ZHAO Hai-jun,GUO Jie.The prediction of groundwater level based on the combined model of grey system and neural network[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2011,22(3):119-124. |
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| Authors: | FENG Yu MA Feng-shan WEI Ai-hua ZHAO Hai-jun GUO Jie |
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| Institution: | FENG Yu,MA Feng-shan,WEI Ai-hua,ZHAO Hai-jun,GUO Jie(Key Laboratory of Engineering Geomechanics,Institute of Geology and Geophysics,China Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China) |
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| Abstract: | Grey GM（1,1） model and Artificial Neural network both have good applicability for predicting series of non-liner trend also with their own limitations.In this paper,the Grey theory model and Artificial neural network method were combined to modify the predict results of GM（1,1） model.To collect the groundwater level data from 1996 to 2006 of a region as an example,the result shows that,the prediction accuracy has been greatly improved than the original Grey GM（1,1） model. |
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| Keywords: | Grey GM（1 1） model artificial neural network groundwater level prediction |
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