| 边坡变形模拟预测的普适灰色模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 靳晓光,李晓红.边坡变形模拟预测的普适灰色模型[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2001,12(2):51-55. |
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| 作者姓名： | 靳晓光 李晓红 |
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| 作者单位： | 靳晓光（重庆大学西南资源开发及环境灾害控制工程教育部重点实验室,重庆 400044）
李晓红（重庆大学西南资源开发及环境灾害控制工程教育部重点实验室,重庆 400044） |
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| 基金项目： | 国家杰出青年基金资助项目(59725410);国家自然科学基金资助项目(50074035) |
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| 摘 要： | 传统灰色GM(1,1)模型,多适用于等间距监测数据序列的模拟预测;对非等间距序列,一般经过等间距处理或经过繁复的变换计算直接建立非等间距模型.从边坡变形模拟预测的角度来讲,传统灰色GM(1,1)模型只有当边坡变形呈低增长序列时,才能获得较高的模拟和预测精度,而对呈高增长序列的边坡变形往往产生较大的滞后误差.以优化灰色模型背景值为基础构建的普适GM(1,1)模型,不仅适用于边坡变形等间距监测数据的低、高增长序列,而且适用于非等间距的低、高增长序列,且都能获得很高的模拟和预测精度,对边坡变形的模拟预测具有普遍的适用性.
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| 关 键 词： | 边坡变形 GM(1 1)模型 等-非等间距 低-高变形序列 模拟预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-8035(2001)02-0051-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年4月2日 |
General adequate grey model of modeling-forecasting of slope deformation |
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| JIN Xiaoguang,LI Xiaohong.General adequate grey model of modeling-forecasting of slope deformation[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2001,12(2):51-55. |
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| Authors: | JIN Xiaoguang LI Xiaohong |
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| Abstract: | Original grey GM(1,1)model is often used in modeling-forecasting of equidistant monitoring data sequent.But for non-equidistant data sequent,had to build the grey GM(1,1)model through equidistant treatment or to build non-equidistant grey model directly through complex transfermation and caculation.From the point of modeling forecasting the original GM(1,1) model can get high modeling-forecasting accuracy only for slope deformation in low growth date sequent.But it will have large lagging error in high growth data sequent.Genaral adequate GM(1,1) model was built based on majorized grey model background value.It not only be used in equidistant low and high growth monitoring data sequent of slope deformation,but also be used non-equidistant low and high growth data sequent and the model had higher modeling-forecasting accuracy.The majorized GM(1,1) model has general adequaence for modeling-forecast of slope deformation. |
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