| 滑坡灾害预测预报分类 |
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| 引用本文： | 殷坤龙.滑坡灾害预测预报分类[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2003,14(4):12-18. |
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| 作者姓名： | 殷坤龙 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地质大学〈武汉〉工程学院,湖北,武汉,430074 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部科学技术研究重点资助项目(03034),浙江省重大科技招标项目"浙江省突发性地质灾害预警预报系统研究与应用示范 |
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| 摘 要： | 有人主张滑坡灾害的空间和时间预测预报应是并存的,即脱离时间预测预报的空间预测是不可取的。但也有人认为两者可以相互独立而又互为补充。事实上,空间预测是时间预测预报的先决条件,只有在明确了预测的对象之后,方可有目的地开展滑坡灾害的时间预测预报。因而,一般地讲,滑坡灾害空间和时间预测具有先后序次关系。但从减灾的角度考虑,二者又具有相对的独立性。即可以在时间预测之外进行空间预测。目前对滑坡灾害预测预报分类的系统研究不多,所开展的预测预报事例报导基本上属于个例研究。论文将滑坡灾害预测预报分为空间和时间2大类,并进一步将空间预测划分成区域空间预测、地段空间预测和场地空间预测;将时间预测预报划分成长期时间预测、短期时间预测和临滑时间预测预报。文章针对滑坡灾害时间预测预报的特点,对预测预报的信息源进行了分析和分类。并对不同的工程阶段所要预测的滑坡灾害问题进行了分类归纳。
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| 关 键 词： | 滑坡 P642.2灾害 预测预报 分类 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-8035(2003)04-0012-07 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年4月22日 |
Classification of landslide hazard prediction and warning |
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| Abstract: | It is suggested that the spatial and temporary predictions of landslide hazard should be considered at the same time,which implies that the spatial prediction is not acceptable without temporary sense.But it is also suggested that landslide spatial prediction could be independent of temporary prediction,and both can be complemented with each other.In fact,spatial landslide prediction is a precondition of time prediction,which means temporary prediction can only be well targeted under correct spatial evaluations.From the point of view of hazard reduction,spatial landslide prediction can play significant role even without time prediction.It rare,so far,that landslide hazard classification is systematically studied and reported predictive cases belong to individuals.Spatial and temporary predictions are mainly classified in this paper.Furthermore,spatial prediction is subdivided into regional,district,and site landslide predictions.And temporary prediction is subdivided into long\|term,short\|term predictions,and warning.Finally information sources for time prediction and warning are discussed followed by the engineering geological explanation of landslide prediction corresponding to construction stages. |
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| Keywords: | landslide hazard prediction and warning classification |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
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