| 中国地质灾害(以崩、滑、流为主)危险性分析与区划 |
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| 引用本文： | 柳源.中国地质灾害(以崩、滑、流为主)危险性分析与区划[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2003,14(1):95-99. |
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| 作者姓名： | 柳源 |
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| 作者单位： | 重庆大学,土木工程学院,重庆,400044 |
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| 摘 要： | 论文提出了地质灾害（滑坡、崩塌、泥石流为主）危险性分析的步骤与方法。针对常规的地质灾害危险性分析评价模型，对致灾作用的各种影响因素采用主观赋予权重方法，将所有影响因子作为不变量看待而带来2个突出问题：由于权重确定的主观性，使危险性计算结果的可靠程度受到影响；危险性的过分确定性，与实际不相符。因此提出了利用层次分析方法确定权重，将主观判断工作由一个层次驱赶到下一个比较容易判断的层次上，一定程度上提高了权重取值的可靠性；另一方面，在详细分析了各种影响因素的基础上，突出了降雨的特殊作用。而且一改过去将降雨量作为参算因子的做法，采用临界降雨强度的超越概率参算，突出了其随机性，也提高了危险性计算的可靠程度。
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| 关 键 词： | 地质灾害 危险性 权重 层次分析法 评价模型 中国 崩塌 滑坡 泥石流 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-8035(2003)01-0095-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002年11月26 |
Risk analysis and zoning of geological hazards (chiefly landslide,rock fall and debris flow) in China |
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| Abstract: | The process and methods of risk analysis and zoning of geological hazard(landslide, rock fall and debris flow) in China were presented in this paper. Two problems leading to unreasonable in the models of risk analysis of the outburst geological hazard in the previous studies, i.e. the weighting of the factors affecting the geological hazards were given not by impersonality and the factors were all considered as the constants. As for these problems, the hierarchy analysis was applied to figure out the weighting of the affecting factors and the precipitation was taken as the critical intensity of rainfall in the models, therefore the reliability of risk analysis of geological hazard was improved in our studies. |
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| Keywords: | geological hazard risk weighting hierarchy analysis analytical model zoning of geological hazard |
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