| 日本大震与中国及邻区中强地震的遥相关 |
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| 引用本文： | 曾小苹,林泊宁,陈维升,白志强,郑吉盎,林云芳.日本大震与中国及邻区中强地震的遥相关[J].地球科学,2014,39(12):1864-1872. |
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| 作者姓名： | 曾小苹 林泊宁 陈维升 白志强 郑吉盎 林云芳 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国地震局地球物理研究所, 北京 100081 |
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| 摘 要： | 将日本从北至南划分为5个区, 分析1900—2011年3月共110 a期间发生的67个Ms＝6.9~9.0大震事件, 与其后4 a在中国及邻区发生的Ms≥6.0(极个别为Ms=5.5~5.8)共569个中强地震的对应比较.得出结论: (1)日本大震和中国及邻区中强震二者有很好的遥相关关系; (2)分析了日本各区与中国及邻区地震相对应的特点; (3)中国地区地震的滞后时间多为0.5~2.0 a, 最长4 a; (4)用"遥相关法"预测2011—2013年期间, 中国及邻区的中强地震危险区.年度预测与实际发生地震检验结果显示: 预测的34个次地震危险区中, "报对"28个次, 约占总预测个次的82%, "虚报"6个次, 约占18%, 显示"遥相关法"对年度地震预测有一定效果; (5)提出"蜘蛛网"逆反应模型解释中国及邻区对日本大震的响应现象.
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| 关 键 词： | 日本大震 遥相关 中强震 天然地震 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-09-01 |
Teleconnection between Great Earthquakes in Japan and Moderate-Strong Earthquakes in China and Its Vicinity |
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| Zeng Xiaoping,Lin Boning,Chen Weisheng,Bai Zhiqiang,Zheng Jiang,Lin Yunfang.Teleconnection between Great Earthquakes in Japan and Moderate-Strong Earthquakes in China and Its Vicinity[J].Earth Science-Journal of China University of Geosciences,2014,39(12):1864-1872. |
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| Authors: | Zeng Xiaoping Lin Boning Chen Weisheng Bai Zhiqiang Zheng Jiang Lin Yunfang |
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| Abstract: | We quoted total 67 seismic events of Ms=6.9-9.0 in past 110 years (during 1900 to March 2011) in five divided regions from north to south in Japan and total 569 moderate-strong earthquakes of Ms≥6.0 in China and its vicinity to study their correlativity. The corresponding comparison was carried out to compare each Japanese earthquake and earthquakes occurred in China and its vicinity within 4 years (predominantly, Ms≥6.0). It is found that there are good correlations between great earthquakes in Japan and moderate-strong earthquakes in China and its vicinity. By studying the correlation characteristics, there are lag intervals, mostly from 6 months to 2 years but no more than 4 years, when earthquakes occurred in China after earthquakes in Japan. The "teleconnection prediction method" to predict the moderate-strong seismic risk regions in China and its vicinity is applied and positive results of 82% correctness (6 false predictions in 34 earthquake regions) are obtained. We try to use a "spider web" model of reverse reaction to explain the correlativity of earthquakes which we studied. |
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| Keywords: | great earthquakes in Japan teleconnection moderate-strong earthquake earthquake |
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