| CMIP5模式对长江和黄河流域极端气温指标的模拟与预估 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 李佳瑞,牛自耕,冯岚,姚瑞,陈鑫鑫.CMIP5模式对长江和黄河流域极端气温指标的模拟与预估[J].地球科学,2020,45(6):1887-1904. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 李佳瑞 牛自耕 冯岚 姚瑞 陈鑫鑫 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 中国地质大学地理与信息工程学院, 湖北武汉 430078 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目41975044国家自然科学基金项目41601044中国地质大学(武汉)地学长江计划重点项目CUGCJ1704 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 为研究长江和黄河流域极端气温的变化特征，对耦合模式比较计划第5阶段22个大气环流模式数据进行精度评估、Delta降尺度并计算16个极端气温指标，采用可靠性集合平均方法对两流域历史和未来的极端气温进行预估.结果表明:除四川盆地外，两流域的观测值与REA(ensemble reliability average)值在空间上具有较好一致性；未来三个时期(2020s、2050s、2080s)，典型浓度路径(Representative Concentration Pathways，RCP)4.5情景下指标变化趋势依次递减，RCP8.5情景下变化趋势逐渐递增；RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下指标年际变化在21世纪40年代之前是相似的，但之后变化趋势差异增加；两流域的大多数指标呈现上升趋势，冬季趋势相较于其他季节更显著；两流域之间冷极端指标的差异大于暖极端指标.总的来说，两流域的暖极端事件将更加严重.
|
| 关 键 词： | 极端气温 coupled model intercomparison project phase 5(CMIP5) 长江流域 黄河流域 水文地质 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-01-17 |
Simulation and Prediction of Extreme Temperature Indices in Yangtze and Yellow River Basins by CMIP5 Models |
| |
| Abstract: | To study the change characteristics of extreme temperature in the Yangtze and Yellow River basins,the output data from 22 general climate models (GCMs) of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) were selected.The data were processed by accuracy evaluation and delta downscaling,then 16 extreme temperature indices were calculated based on these data. The ensemble reliability average (REA) results were selected for historical simulation and future prediction of extreme temperature over the two basins. The results show that the spatial characteristics of the observations are in good agreement with that of the REA values,except for the Sichuan basin. During the three periods(2020s,2050s,2080s) in future,the trends of the indices would continually decrease under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 scenario,while the trends of these indices would increase under the RCP8.5 scenario. The variation of the indices is similar before the 1940s under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios,however,the variation characteristics under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 have a significant difference since the 1940s. In the future,most indices would show upward trends,especially in winter. Moreover,the difference of the cold extreme indices between the two basins are greater than the difference of the warm extreme indices.In general,warm extreme events in the Yangtze and Yellow River basins will be more serious in future. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《地球科学》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《地球科学》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
