| 中国北方地下煤层发火概率统计分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘晓晨,武建军,赵菲菲,刘明.中国北方地下煤层发火概率统计分析[J].煤田地质与勘探,2011,39(3):7-13. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘晓晨 武建军 赵菲菲 刘明 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室，北京100875;民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院，北京100875;北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室，北京100875 |
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| 基金项目： | 国际科技合作重点项目(2007DFA90500) |
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| 摘 要： | 二项逻辑回归模型能够弥补样本量小、自变量类型不统一等不足，对因变量数据假设的要求较低,可用来预测具有二分特点的因变量概率值。以新疆现存的地下煤火火点与随机生成的控制点作为建立回归方程的样本，以煤质指标中的灰分、挥发分、硫分、发热量，煤层上覆岩层的地质年代、地表坡度与深大断裂带的分布，以及干燥度、人口密度与矿区的管理水平...
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| 关 键 词： | 中国北方 地下煤火 二项逻辑回归 预测 统计分析 |
Statistical analysis of the probability of underground coal combustion in northern China |
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| LIU Xiaochen,WU Jianjun,ZHAO Feifei,LIU Ming.Statistical analysis of the probability of underground coal combustion in northern China[J].Coal Geology & Exploration,2011,39(3):7-13. |
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| Authors: | LIU Xiaochen WU Jianjun ZHAO Feifei LIU Ming |
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| Institution: | LIU Xiaochen1,2,3,WU Jianjun1,ZHAO Feifei1,LIU Ming1,3(1.State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China,2.Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management,MOCA/MOE,3.Key Laboratory of Environment Change and Natural Disaster,MOE,China) |
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| Abstract: | China has widely distributed coal resources;however,suffering from the perennial underground coal fires for so many decades.The coal fire swallows coal resources and leads to sever environmental and ecological pollution.For fighting against the underground coal fire,the results from statistical analysis of the fire spatial dis-tribution and its probability of the occurrence can be provided to the fire fighters as the theory for reasonably allo-cating resources and supporting the decision-making.For undergro... |
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| Keywords: | northern China underground coal fires binary logistic regression forecast statistical analysis |
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