| 基于贝叶斯方法的船坞双排钢板桩围堰整体稳定性可靠度分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱 艳,顾倩燕,江 杰,彭 铭,肖炳辉.基于贝叶斯方法的船坞双排钢板桩围堰整体稳定性可靠度分析[J].岩土力学,2016,37(Z1):609-615. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱 艳 顾倩燕 江 杰 彭 铭 肖炳辉 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中船第九设计研究院工程有限公司，上海 200063；2. 广西大学 土木建筑工程学院，广西 南宁 530004； 3. 同济大学地下建筑与工程系，上海 200092；4. 同济大学 岩土及地下工程教育部重点实验室，上海 200092 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金（No.41402257）；上海市浦江人才计划（No.14PJ1408200）；上海市普陀区高层次人才科研创新项目（No. 2014-A-13）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 双排钢板桩围堰的整体稳定性具有较大的不确定性，同样安全系数情况下对应的失稳概率可能不同。为了更准确地分析双排钢板桩围堰的整体稳定性，降低稳定性分析中的不确定性，采用贝叶斯方法对船坞双排钢板桩围堰的整体稳定性进行可靠度分析。首先通过统计数据获取土体参数的先验分布，然后基于实测数据采用贝叶斯方法更新参数以得到后验分布，最后根据参数的后验分布采用一次二阶矩计算围堰结构的可靠度。贝叶斯方法从理论的角度解决了已有工程经验和实际案例数据两方面信息有效综合的问题，能在更接近实际情况的前提下进行可靠度分析。
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| 关 键 词： | 贝叶斯方法 双排钢板桩围堰 整体稳定性 船坞 可靠度 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015-01-30 |
Reliability analysis for overall stability of large-span double-row steel sheet-piled dock cofferdam based on Bayesian method |
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| ZHU Yan,GU Qian-yan,JIANG Jie,PENG Ming,XIAO Bin-hui.Reliability analysis for overall stability of large-span double-row steel sheet-piled dock cofferdam based on Bayesian method[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2016,37(Z1):609-615. |
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| Authors: | ZHU Yan GU Qian-yan JIANG Jie PENG Ming XIAO Bin-hui |
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| Institution: | 1. China Shipbuilding NDRI Engineering Co., Ltd., Shanghai 200063, China; 2. College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Guangxi University, Nanning, Guangxi 530004, China; 3. Department of Geotechnical Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China; 4. Key Laboratory of Geotechnical and Underground Engineering of Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China |
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| Abstract: | There are large uncertainties in the overall stability of supporting structure of large-span double-row sheet-piled cofferdam. The projects with the same values of factor of safety may have different failure probabilities. It is found in practice that some projects with large factor of safety failed and vice versa. In order to improve the evaluation and reduce the uncertainties of stability analysis, Bayesian method is applied for reliability analysis. First, the prior probabilities of soil parameters are obtained based on statistic data. Then, the posterior probabilities are achieved by updating the prior with measured data based on Bayesian method. Finally, the method of “first order second moment” is applied to conduct reliability analysis of the supporting structure stability of deep excavation. Bayesian method theoretically solves the problem of integrating the information from both experience and measurements. The reliability analysis with Bayesian method may be closer to real cases. |
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| Keywords: | Bayesian method double steel sheet-pile cofferdam stability dock reliability |
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