| 基于GIS的Logistic模型在深圳大运中心岩溶空间发育规律评价中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 李雪平,徐光黎,吴 强,李元琴.基于GIS的Logistic模型在深圳大运中心岩溶空间发育规律评价中的应用[J].岩土力学,2010,31(Z2):276-280. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李雪平 徐光黎 吴 强 李元琴 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国地质大学（武汉）工程学院，武汉 430074；2. 中国水电顾问集团贵阳勘测设计研究院咨询公司，贵阳 550081； 3. 贵州省有色金属和核工业地质勘查局三总队，遵义 563000 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家高技术研究发展计划（863）项目资助（No. 2007AA12Z204）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用Logistic回归模型进行岩溶空间发育规律评价，为深圳大运中心场地岩溶地面塌陷预测提供依据。结合岩溶发育影响因素和场地现有资料，选取地层岩性、地下水埋深、地质构造3个因素作为影响场地岩溶发育的地质因素。根据钻孔揭示的土溶洞埋藏深度频率层次聚类分析结果，将场地岩溶发育划分为<10、10～22、22～30、30～36、≥36 m共5个埋深组。将场地在平面上按10 m×10 m大小划分为6 843个评价单元。在GIS技术的支持下，以钻孔揭示的岩溶发育情况为样本空间，分别建立场地5个埋深组的3因素Logistic回归模型。通过5个埋深组的钻孔Logistic回归模型，分别计算各个埋深组情况下场地各评价单元的Logistic回归值PL。以不同埋深组土溶洞发生频率为权重，将同一位置、5个埋深组的单元PL值进行加权累加，得到场地各单元岩溶发育综合评价P值。将P值进行层次聚类分析，把场地划分为岩溶发育区、岩溶发育-不发育过渡区、岩溶不发育区。结果表明模型具有一定的可信度，可为岩溶地面塌陷评价提供依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 地理信息系统 逻辑斯蒂克 岩溶空间发育 深圳大运中心 层次聚类 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010-08-03 |
Application of GIS-based logistic model to karst spatial prognosis studying in Shenzhen universiade center |
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| LI Xue-ping,XU Guang-li,WU Qiang,LI Yuan-qing.Application of GIS-based logistic model to karst spatial prognosis studying in Shenzhen universiade center[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2010,31(Z2):276-280. |
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| Authors: | LI Xue-ping XU Guang-li WU Qiang LI Yuan-qing |
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| Institution: | 1. Engineering Faculty, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China; 2. Consultation Company, Hydro-China Guiyang Engineering Corporation, Guiyang 550081, China; 3. Third Corps, Guizhou Nonferrous Metal and Nuclear Industry Geological Exploration Bureau, Zunyi, Guizhou 563000, China |
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| Abstract: | This paper has explored karst spatial prognosis by logistic regression model so as to offer evidence of karst surface collapse in Shenzhen Universiade Center. The lithological feature, groundwater depth and geological structure have been chosen based on influencing karst developing factors and acquired data on site. The site karst development has been classified into five depth groups, namely, <10m, 10-22m, 22-30m, 30-36m and ≥36m, according to soil (karst) cave depth frequency hierarchical cluster analysis from drill display. The site has been classified into 6843 grids by 10m×10m in plane. The 3 factors logistic models of each depth group have been established when borehole information has been taken as samples of karst development based on GIS technology. The logistic PL value of each grid in five depth groups has been calculated by individual logistic model of boreholes. The weight is set by different depth karst frequency. The integrated evaluating P of each grid has been calculated by PL of each depth group by accumulating weights on the same position in different depth groups. After carrying out hierarchical cluster analysis of P, the site has been plotted into karst development area, karst development—non development area, karst non-development area. The results show that this model is reliable and can provide evidence for karst surface collapse assessment. |
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| Keywords: | GIS logistic karst spatial prognosis Shenzhen Universiade Center hierarchical cluster procedures |
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