Long-term growth of the oil industry in the United States |
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| Authors: | Arthur FitzPatrick Brian Hitchon and J R McGregor |
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| Institution: | (1) Research Council of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada;(2) University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada |
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| Abstract: | A number of growth models have been developed and used in an attempt to project the historical pattern of oil activities to some estimate of their upper limit. Techniques are outlined for the estimation of parameters of the logistic and Gompertz curves. Factor analysis indicated a close relationship between production and demand, whereas annual discoveries and discoveries classified by year of discovery tended to comprise unique factors which were indifferent to changes in time. The growth models projected relatively high values for ultimate demand and production in comparison to the figures for ultimate reserves. Inasmuch as these trends seemed to be occurring independently, some reconciliation of the results was necessary. Using the highest projections of estimates for reserves suggests that over 420 billion barrels of oil in place will eventually be discovered in the United States, with perhaps 200 billion barrels of this eventually to be proved in the form of reserves. Projections for production were higher, corresponding to a trend indicating high levels in demand for crude oil. The only credible long-term estimate of demand was given by a bounded exponential growth model, in which ultimate cumulative demand for crude oil would reach about 416 billion barrels. These figures imply that over 150 billion barrels of oil would be imported into the United States from 1970 to 2070. Provided the time pattern for one of the variables has been determined, then estimates of the other variables probably would be facilitated because of the high interrelationship between variables. Models are suggested in which accurate pivotal forecasting in the short term might be possible—assuming the particular future trend in some of the  independent variables has been predetermined.Research Council of Alberta Contribution No. 596. |
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| Keywords: | factor analysis generalized logistic curve Gompertz curve petroleum regression analysis time series time-trend analysis |
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